Luckily for Democrats, David Axelrod will have to shave his mustache and Donald Trump will have to believe that Barack Obama is an American citizen (in that order) before Oregon turns red by the end of election night 2012. Joking aside, Republican efforts in the state have made headways in past years, as shown by Republican Gubernatorial candidate (and former Portland Trail Blazer Basketball player) Chris Dudley’s narrow loss (694,287 – 716,525) to current Governor John Kitzhaber. But alas, the liberal stronghold in Portland will remain in tact with the liberal “Left Coast”.
Oregon votes entirely by mail and mail dropbox initiative. There is no ballot casting locations or “getting out” to vote come Election Day. As of November 4th, 50.3% of Oregon’s 2.2 million voters have returned their ballots. Although on Pacific Standard Time, be on the lookout for pundits and news hosts to project a solid seven electoral votes for President Obama from Oregon fairly early on in the night. If you don’t think seven electoral votes is a lot, look no further than New Hampshire to see how much money is being spent for four electoral votes.
Oregon has no closely contested Congressional races or Senate races this year. Though Oregon’s claim to fame comes from Senator Ron Wyden’s (D-Ore.) famous/infamous (depending on which side of the spectrum you lean) part in the Ryan-Wyden Medicare plan.
Last but not least, like Washington and Colorado, Oregon also has a ballot measure to decriminalize the use of recreational marijuana. If popular perception of the Beaver State holds true, then look for Oregon to become a marijuana-legal state as well.
PolicyMic will be covering the 2012 election from the state of Oregon live. For live updates, bookmark and refresh this page.
Update Nov 6th – 6:15 PM
More updated results from the Oregon Secretary of State, Kate Brown. Results through 11/5 60.4% or 1,330,651 voters in Oregon have had their ballots tallied. Go Oregon! The beauty of mail-in voting
Update Nov 6th – 6:00 PM
Romney is looking real good. CNN projects him 8 electoral votes from Kentucky, Obama only 3 from Vermont. Almost 300% more electoral votes. I wish someone would give me an electoral vote. Just one!
Update Nov 6th – 5:45 PM
Vigo County, Indiana has correctly predicted the last 54 years of Presidential elections. Tonight it turned blue. Take it with a grain of salt....
Update Nov 6th - 5:33 PM (CST - I'm in Chicagoooo)
3:30 back in the Pacific Northwest. By the time most ya'll return home the swing states of Virginia, North Carolina and Virginia will be making headlines. By the time you're done with dinner Ohio might be released (and it'll probably be very close so you'll truly have no idea until much later in the night). Sit back and you should either know who the President is by either 9 pm your time... or in several weeks after all this lawsuit, recount, provisional ballot stuff is figured out.
The Oregonian has got you covered with when and what you should watch!
Update Nov 6th - 2:07 PM
I'm super-posting now to compensate for my lack of posting in the next few hours (You kno, college work and all). Anyway, if those national polls are confusing you, and you want concrete answers. Look no further than political pollster Conan O'Brien. Enjoy
Update Nov 6th – 2:00 PM
Here's my prediction for tonight. Yup. Romney wins the popular vote 50.8% - 49.8% (I have no basis for this, it just looks snazzy). Republican headlines tomorrow state that the GOP is up in arms about the stupidity of the electoral college (a la Democrats in 2000).
Crazy scenario that I wouldn't necessary enjoy, but could learn to appreciate by how absurd it'd be.
Tied at 269-269, the electoral voters hold true to their populaces and vote. Out of the state delegations in Congress, 34/50 elect President Romney. Senate upholds Joe Biden as Vice President. Romney-Biden ticket. CRAZY.
Update Nov 6th - 1:40 PM
The good news for west coasters is that you don't have to stay up very late to learn who the next President will be (well there's scenarios where the results could be actually decided in 10-14 days from now... If Romney or Obama win Ohio with less than 50,000 votes, then the issue of provisional ballots that can be counted up to 10 days after the election... but let's not go there until we have to).
Expect the first wave of election results to immediately follow the closing of polls in those states. My guess will be that by 11:15 EST the President-Elect will be projected.
Update Nov 6th - 10:05 AM
Good morning, Oregon! Most people know that Oregon has not been a swing state or place of interest on the national political scheme. We Oregonians are but a sad footnote and a fun cash cow for both political parties. However, there are key factors to watch for in Oregon tonight that could very much put Oregon into play in future elections.
- GOP Gains – As mentioned earlier, GOP candidate Chris Dudley's narrow defeat to Governor Kitzhaber bodes well for future Republican efforts in the state. Something is working in the Grand Ol Party's framework in Oregon, especially outside of the Portland Metro area and in the ever-expanding suburban west and south sides of the Willamette Valley.
- Obama's Margin of Victory – How close Candidate Romney's loss here in Oregon could effectively sway the GOP party gurus to make a play for Oregon in 2016. However, take the overall results with a grain of salt as voter apathy in a solid colored state tends to underestimate the voter capability of that particular group. The more important factor is whether the registered Republican voters in Oregon come out to vote despite their candidate's chances of victory in the state to be next to futile. Voter enthusiasm has been a friend of Romney's this election cycle.
- Just a Matter of "When" – Oregonians have already cleared medical marijuana on the books, but experts are not wholly convinced recreational use will get the A-Ok from the electorate. However, look for the margin of defeat to suggest whether there will be enough popular support in the coming years for the legalization of marijuana.
Also, for those party loyalists, here's a lookback at the good ol' days of a pure electoral color map. Trends indicate that as the demographic of this country shifts and becomes more divided the likelihood of a clean sweep becomes ever more elusive.
1964: Johnson 486, Goldwater 52
1972: Nixon 520, McGovern 17
See our full election live coverage here
Update Nov 5th - 10:45 CST:
It's amazing to think that in roughly 24 hours this man will rise upon the stage at the McCormick Place, Chicago, IL and make either his farewell congratulation speech or his Presidential re-election acceptance speech. Has it really been four years since America elected its first Black president?
|McKinney, Cynthia||Pacific Green||
In 2008, more than a million Oregonians voted for Barack Obama – a state record total for any Presidential candidate in history. Obviously a larger population in 2008 helped in those efforts, but voter turnout was at unprecedented levels across all groups, nationwide.
1 out of every 3 Oregonians voted for our current President. 55% of registered voters casted it for the President. A little retrospective food for thought as the past four years politically end tomorrow night, as the focus shifts to the next 4 years... imagine where we'll all be by then.
2016: the Clinton/Castro(s)/Biden/O'Malley/Young gun up and comer with a heroic story
Ryan/Bush/Rubio/Christie/New age coffee party-wave candidate election!
UPDATE Nov 5th – 9:30 CST:
In a relatively quiet year for National Politics in Oregon, it marks a good time to sit back and remember that this whole process, despite its negativity and polarizing means, is a celebration of our American right to govern our country as we see accordingly. Also, election night is one big party... granted that half the country is face-palming, head shaking, and muttering profusely under their breath. Either way, it only happens once every four years. So enjoy it!