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Mitt Romney Will Win Nevada Caucuses, Another Devastating Blow to Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum

I'm calling it for Mitt Romney: He is about to beat Newt Gingrich badly in Nevada. Right now, of voters who were asked who they would vote for, 50% said Romney and only 25% said Gingrich. Looking deeper into the numbers just reveals all the types of trouble that Gingrich is facing. 

For one thing, people approve of Romney to a degree that is larger than the portion of the vote he is expected to receive. A full 70% of the voters surveyed like the guy, and only 50% said they would vote for him, meaning that some of the people supporting Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), Gingrich, and Rick Santorum are doing so reluctantly. If anything, they'll change over to Romney's side.

Gingrich on the other hand is approved by about 41% of people and disapproved by about 49%. So, there are likely some people who are currently planning on voting for Gingrich, but don't really want to go through with it.

In other words, things are set very badly against Gingrich, and it seems that any change would likely be against the former speaker. To reinforce this fact, most voters said that their second choice was Santorum, who, like Romney, is viewed very favorably even though no one is really considering voting for him.

To make things worse, most people have indicated that they are firmly decided about who they want to vote for, giving Gingrich very little undecided voters that he could impress, even if he were to turn his momentum around. Besides, most of America is preparing for the Super Bowl and have no reason to reexamine their political commitments at this late date. 

Last, I'll mention that Gingrich's campaign doesn't show any promising signs of enacting the turnaround that I have so far argued that would be ineffectual anyway. For one thing, popular Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval has refused to endorse any of the candidates, eliminating a further potential spark for Gingrich's failing campaign. There have also been been amateurish missteps ever since the Gingrich team arrived in Nevada.

None of the candidates are really spending anything either. A smart move given that the polling shows that things are locked up for Romney.  

Photo Credit: VoteTimScott1

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