Wisconsin Presidential Polls: Romney Will Benefit From the Conservative Momentum of Scott Walker

Wisconsin's election season never seemed to end after the 2010 elections. Scott Walker and the Republican majority started a firestorm with their laws aimed to fix the state's massive budget deficit at the expense of cush public sector jobs. Almost immediately after passage, a series of Republicans faced recall elections. When his time came, Scott Walker did too. Although they were bruised by the union left, Walker and the Republican machine emerged relatively unscathed. By some accounts, Walker actually emerged from that fight in a better position to govern.

The latest recall fight ended in June, meaning Scott Walker's immense machine he built to survive the recall could be packaged up with a bow and handed off right to Romney. Staff, facilities, data ... all resources that take time and energy to build in a swing state. When the opportunity cost is minimalized for a campaign, they can make the state competitive. Real Clear Politics has the split at 5%, although that "gap" has only widened in the last two days. According to Dan Conrad, a Wisconsin voter (and admitted Romney supporter), "Obama is falling back on scaring seniors, misrepresentations, and class warfare."  

Generally, negativity in a race is reserved for campaigns that have a distinct fear of losing or rubbing salt in the wound. Conrad also notes that Romney's ads have been far more positive and upbeat, especially in the closing weeks and says "I have never seen normally conservative people so fired up. It goes beyond being enthusiastic ... I have attended multiple events at the county level and there is optimism."  It also helps a bit that Paul Ryan is a popular congressman in the state.

The Tommy Thompson vs Tammy Baldwin Senate race has probably been far more negative than Romney-Obama. Each has continually accused the other of very unpatriotic acts. Thompson has accused Baldwin of radicalism in voting against a 9/11 resolution on the attack's five year anniversary.  Baldwin has accused Thompson of profiteering by denying 9/11 first responders health benefits. The nastiness of the race reflects the back-and-forth nature of the polls. Both Baldwin and Thompson have settled in for a dogfight after each held significant leads at one time or another. Conrad further noted that Walker has come out with television ads endorsing Tommy Thompson, and the current governor's popularity among a majority of voters is helping the former Governor Thompson at the end.

Wisconsin is a state that epitomizes the electoral partisanship right now in America. Republicans and Democrats have dug in for a long fight that started before the current presidential cycle came into full swing.  It's carrying over, though, and that is going to help Romney and Thompson in the end. Look for Tommy Thompson to beat Tammy Baldwin by 2-3%, and for Romney to pull out a win in Wisconsin by about a point.

----------

Editor's Note: Each day, Rob Lee will provide analysis of key swing states leading up to the election. Each of these states are identified as swing states by Real Clear Politics. In addition to the presidential contest, each state also offers an array of competitive Senate and House races that will influence the agenda of the president, whoever emerges victorious next week. Tune back in tomorrow as Colorado is evaluated.

How likely are you to make Mic your go-to news source?

Robert Lee

I'm a political consultant that started a conservative firm in Chicago, and recently relocated to Atlanta. 2g Strategies, LLC develops, implements, and manages solutions for clients running for political offices, non-profits, and small businesses. I held various positions in political organizations and campaigns, including the College Republicans and Young Republicans. In 2004, I served as the Nevada Team Leader for the College Republican National Committee’s Field Program, and served as Communications Director for the Georgia Young Republicans. I also have extensive private business experience and a background in business operations. I am a certified ISO 9001 auditor and Project Management Professional (PMP). I hold a B.A. in Political Science from Colorado State University.

MORE FROM

Will Justice Anthony Kennedy retire at end of Supreme Court term? Here's what we know.

Rumors that the 80-year-old swing justice may leave the bench are fueling fear of a second Trump pick on the nation's high court.

3 states and D.C. allow same flammable building materials behind Grenfell Tower fire

The causes of London's Grenfell Tower are similar to the justifications used to waive fire regulations in the U.S.

New Jersey bill would require kids to be taught how to interact with police

Students from kindergarten through 12th grade would receive the education.

UK Parliament hit with cyberattack

Members of Parliament had difficulty accessing their emails Saturday in the wake of the attack.

Istanbul LGBT pride march banned by government for safety concerns

A right-wing nationalist group has vowed to stop the protest.

Compounds seized by US in December reportedly contained material useful in Russia probe

The Trump administration has reportedly been considering returning the New York and Maryland compounds to Russia.

Will Justice Anthony Kennedy retire at end of Supreme Court term? Here's what we know.

Rumors that the 80-year-old swing justice may leave the bench are fueling fear of a second Trump pick on the nation's high court.

3 states and D.C. allow same flammable building materials behind Grenfell Tower fire

The causes of London's Grenfell Tower are similar to the justifications used to waive fire regulations in the U.S.

New Jersey bill would require kids to be taught how to interact with police

Students from kindergarten through 12th grade would receive the education.

UK Parliament hit with cyberattack

Members of Parliament had difficulty accessing their emails Saturday in the wake of the attack.

Istanbul LGBT pride march banned by government for safety concerns

A right-wing nationalist group has vowed to stop the protest.

Compounds seized by US in December reportedly contained material useful in Russia probe

The Trump administration has reportedly been considering returning the New York and Maryland compounds to Russia.