Initial Thoughts on Fiscal Cliff Deal Outline

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets not forget that this still has to pass a cantekerous Congress, specifically a very grumpy collection of Republicans in the House. Theoretically, Boehner could pull enough Republicans if Pelosi can get most of the Democrats on board but that remains to be seen.

As for the initial outlines of the deal, a couple big things are immediately apparent.

1. It doesn't look like there are any real plans for deficit reduction in this deal. Spending cuts look like they're targetted at stimulus expansions on other breaks rather than any cuts in real spending.

2. Democrats got tax raises, Republicans didn't get any entitlement reform. Short term, that doesn't look good for Republicans but the devil may very well be in the details.

3. No mention of the sequester (supposedly a one-year delay is being discussed).

4. No mention of the debt ceiling, meaning the Republicans will most likely once again use it as a club to beat Obama over the head with over the course of the next few weeks.

 

As it stands, the House doesn't even plan to hold a vote on the bill today, meaning even if there is a deal, we won't know about the likelihood of passage until at least tomorrow. A filibuster in the Senate may delay it even longer. 

At the end of the day, when they pass it isn't terribly relevant so long as its in the next few days as any passage will be back-dated to 1/1/13.

And remember, the reports are still conflicting, so there may be no deal at all:

Now, let's see what the President has to say.