The Oscars simply aren't fair. You dutifully show up at auditions every day for years, you bus tables, you sleep on a couch, then you finally catch your big break and appear in a really good movie. Suddenly, to your surprise, you're an Oscar nominee. "Who else is nominated?" you ask. "Daniel Day-Lewis," someone says. "Damn," you say.
That's what every other Best Actor nominee this year said when they heard the news. In Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, Day-Lewis plays a towering historical figure with peerless subtlety and dedication. And the Academy loves him (he's already won twice!). This one's pretty much in the bag.