My winner: Zero Dark Thirty
The bad news is that several well-deserving movies are not going to win this award. The good news that is one of them will. It should be Zero Dark Thirty, the best film of the year in so many ways.
But I don't think it will. One: It's going to split secret intelliegence votes with Argo. Two: The Academy wants to take a stand against torture. Which is profoundly hypocritical because it's putting Seth MacFarlane in front of our faces for three hours. Torture, shmorture.
Their Winner: Lincoln
Lincoln is the pass line, the safest bet on the table. It's not controversial; it's epic; it's clothed in immense power. And it doesn't feature Russell Crowe. All these facts will sway enough voters, just like that amendment thing.
I would also love to see a Silver Linings Playbook upset here. That would really muck things up and send Seth MacFarlane into a downward spiral of rational and G-rated character voices.