Oscar predictions can be really tricky. Even Nat Silver who was able to accurately predict President Obama's win (and mocked by conservatives at that) admits that there is no magic formula for tracking Oscar nominees. There are so many factors that can determine whether a nominee will win for that category (especially when we don't really know what the 'criteria' are).
Here's my predictions for the Oscar's:
Best Picture: Lincoln
This is a tough choice since Argo has won multiple awards for Best movie but seeing that Ben Affleck wasn't nominated (ditto for Kathryn Bigelow) in the Best Director category, it's a tough choice.
Best Director: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) but would be thrilled if Ang Lee won for Life of Pi.
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Best Actor (Leading) : Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Best Actress (Leading): Emmanuelle Riva (Amour).
Best Actor (Supporting): Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)