Mitt Romney Wins Ohio, Says Intrade

At around 7pm, Intrade, the online stock trading website for political races, had Romney nomination shares valued at $9.10, corresponding to a predicted 91% chance that he would win the entire race. 

Most of the movement in Romney's shares came after Romney's narrow Michigan win last Tuesday, shooting up from 55% amidst heavy trading as people registered their new confidence in Romney in race. His strong surge in Ohio also likely played a role in new confidence in his candidacy. His shares began moving up from $8.00 starting around 5pm eastern time. They are currently valued at around $9.00. 

The broader bets on Romney's overall chances were largely unchanged by the early results from Super Tuesday. His shares in the overall nomination race stand at $8.90, meaning the market thinks he has a 89% chance of winning. Newt Gingrich is ranked by the market as having the next largest chanche of winning: the market puts his shares at $0.37 and there was little movement due his win in Georgia. 

Ron Paul spent most of his in Idaho, but is still likely to lose the overall vote count to Romney. Of course, this overstates how well Romney did there because it ignores to Paul's delegate strategy

Georgia went to Gingrich and it looks like Santorum will take Tennessee and Oklahoma. Besides those states, Super Tuesday looks like a big success for Romney. 

Photo Credit: Newshour

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Jordan Wolf

My training is partially in philosophy and I'm interested in democratic theory, but more practically, I like thinking about media sophistication, data in politics, and ways to curb partisanship.

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