Who Will Win at the 2016 Golden Globes — And Who Should?

AP

Sunday's Golden Globes will formally kick off the race to the Academy Awards in February. Oscar nominations come Thursday, so the Globes are the last chance to see many of the likely nominees before their crowning as the definitive best of the best by film's highest honor.

But why rush? The Golden Globes are always a drunken blast, and this year's nominees are an unsurprisingly great lot. Let's break down who's looking like a winner, a should-be-winner and more.

Motion picture — drama

Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

One look at this list shows you what an interesting year for film it was. You've got a quiet lesbian melodrama set in the '50s, an out-of-its mind blockbuster, a miserable Western about man versus wild (and bear), a contemporary drama about a woman trying to find freedom for herself and her child and a quick, smart All the President's Men for the 21st century. Of those five, Carol is the most deserving, but it's the compelling Catholic church abuse scandal drama Spotlight that will win out here.

Should win: Carol
Will win: Spotlight

Source: YouTube

Motion picture — comedy/musical

The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

If either Spy or Trainwreck was the only nominee, they'd stand a chance at beating the more prestigious films here. Unfortunately, their "true comedy" cred will cancel each other out, leaving Joy (too miserable for such a light story), The Martian (too fun for such a dark story) and The Big Short (as Goldilocks would say, just right).

Should win: The Big Short
Will win: The Big Short

Actress in a motion picture — drama

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Blanchett is the true champ here, so striking as a lesbian housewife going through a divorce in 1952, but she'll vote-split with her co-star Mara. Vikander could win, but she's a more likely victor in another category. That leaves it to Larson and Ronan, and the latter stars in a story about an immigrant to the United States learning how to cope and live a new life. A reminder: The Golden Globes are voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a group of people from across the sea who have come to the U.S. This should be Ronan's easily.

Should win: Cate Blanchett, Carol
Will win: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Source: YouTube

Actor in a motion picture — drama

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion

Did you know DiCaprio suffered for his art while making The Revenant? He did. He slept in animal carcasses. His suffering was tremendous. His suffering was gripping. He just suffered so much.

Anyway, he's winning.

Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Actress in a motion picture — comedy/musical

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Schumer will likely cap her stellar year here, while her pal Lawrence's nomination looks more like name recognition than anything else, considering her disappointing work in Joy. McCarthy would be a great choice for a win, but this award should belong to Tomlin. She's fantastic in Grandma, so brazen and hilarious. This is, however, Schumer's victory lap.

Should win: Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Will win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck

Source: YouTube

Actor in a motion picture — comedy/musical

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear

Apparently, Danny Collins was a well-liked film featuring such big stars as Pacino, Jennifer Garner and Christopher Plummer. Who knew! Anyway, since the Big Short boys are probably going to split votes, this is an easy win for Damon.

Should win: Steve Carell, The Big Short
Will win: Matt Damon, The Martian

Supporting actress in a motion picture

Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

This feels like where the HFPA will feel the Vikander love, though interestingly enough, thanks to how the film's studio is campaigning, she could easily be nominated for The Danish Girl in supporting at the Oscars and win instead. That's quirky and unusual, but not impossible. Meanwhile, in a category that's missing some of its most exciting names (Cynthia Nixon, Mya Taylor), Winslet stands out as superior in a decent, if flawed, film.

Should win: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Will win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Source: YouTube

Supporting actor in a motion picture

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Rylance has won and been nominated for several precursor awards this season. His Globe win will continue to pave his path toward an Oscar, with only Stallone standing a chance of getting in his way with Rocky-reminiscent Academy voters. Shannon is tops in the category, but his turn as a corrupt real estate mogul is a bit too subtle to earn major awards.

Should win: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Will win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Director of a motion picture

Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian

Interestingly, while Scott is the likely Oscar-winner, he may lose the Globe to Haynes or Miller. Carol led the nomination count, indicating HFPA love, while Miller executed a daring, surprising vision that rivals (and perhaps even beats) Scott's. Gut guess: It goes to Miller.

Should win: Todd Haynes, Carol
Will win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Source: YouTube

Screenplay of a motion picture

The Big Short
The Hateful Eight
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs

Even if The Big Short proves to be the bigger Oscar player, Spotlight will win the original screenplay category there — as it will win the combined screenplay category here.

Should win: Spotlight
Will win: Spotlight

Animated motion picture

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Let's pretend for a moment that anything besides Inside Out could possibly win. 

People also really like Anomalisa!

Okay, that was a fun moment. Inside Out is winning this in a cakewalk.

Should win: Inside Out
Will win: Inside Out

Source: YouTube

Original score in a motion picture

Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Steve Jobs
The Revenant

Unless the HFPA loved The Danish Girl or wants to reward Hateful Eight composer Ennio Morricone, this seems like a safe bet for Carol.

Should win: Carol
Will win: Carol

Original song in a motion picture

"Love Me Like You Do" from Fifty Shades of Grey
"One Kind of Love" from Love and Mercy
"See You Again" from Furious 7
"Simple Song #3" from Youth
"Writing's on the Wall" from Spectre

Aside from the nomination for Sam Smith's weak James Bond theme, this is a strong category. This is probably Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's best shot at a movie award this season — the Oscar feels a bit out of reach for "See You Again," as voters will see its massive success this summer as enough of a reward. "Simple Song #3," sung by Sumi Jo, is easily the best in the category, and will likely triumph at the Oscars, but this is Furious 7's time to shine.

Should win: "Simple Song #3" from Youth
Will win: "See You Again" from Furious 7

Source: YouTube

TV series — drama

Empire
Game of Thrones
Mr. Robot
Narcos
Outlander

This is almost entirely different from the Emmy list, which speaks to how delightfully off-consensus the Golden Globes went this year. Funny enough, though, it's the only repeat nominee (Game of Thrones) that will probably come out on top. Potential spoiler: Mr. Robot, the buzziest series of the summer.

Should win: Mr. Robot
Will win: Game of Thrones

TV series — comedy/musical

Casual
Mozart in the Jungle
Orange Is the New Black
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Veep

Kudos to the HFPA for putting together a smart, forward-thinking set of nominees here. The likely winner is the most deserving — Transparent — but keep an eye on Mozart in the Jungle. The category is "comedy/musical" for a reason, and the Amazon series all about the New York symphony may tickle voters' eardrums as well as their hearts.

Should win: Transparent
Will win: Transparent (with a very possible Mozart in the Jungle spoiler)

Source: YouTube

Actress in a TV series — drama

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder
Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Robin Wright, House of Cards

Davis could repeat her win from the Emmys, or her friend Henson could take home her first bit of gold for playing Cookie Lyon. Give the slight edge to the latter as a reward for one of the most impressive achievements on television in 2015.

Should win: Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Will win: Taraji P. Henson, Empire

Actor in a TV series — drama

Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Wagner Moura, Narcos
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Eight years ago, Hamm won a Golden Globe for the first season of Mad Men. Unfortunately, he won during the year of the Writers Guild of America strike, when the Globes ceremony was canceled. He didn't win after that, so this is his only chance to give a well-deserved Globes speech. That said, Moura's show is clearly beloved by voters. This could easily be the space they choose to honor it in.

Should win: Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Will win: Wagner Moura, Narcos

Source: YouTube

Actress in a TV series — comedy/musical

Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Jamie Lee Curtis, Scream Queens
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

What a creative batch of nominees, from cable to network to streaming and comedy to musical to horror. Bloom is the easy critical pick for the overachieving Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, but her network-mate Rodriguez is more likely to repeat her win from last year. The real threat here is Tomlin, a double-Globe nominee this year who's almost sure to lose the best actress in a motion picture — comedy/musical race. The HFPA likes her enough to give her two separate nominations; this is their shot to follow through.

Should win: Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Will win: Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Actor in a TV series — comedy/musical

Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Gael García Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Rob Lowe, The Grinder
Patrick Stewart, Blunt Talk
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Brief shout-outs to the deserving Bernal, who brings such vibrancy to Amazon's musical series, and Stewart, who is a true-to-form delight in Starz's comedy. But this award is probably going to keep going to Tambor as long as Transparent keeps making new episodes — and he'll deserve every trophy he gets.

Should win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent
Will win: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Source: YouTube

Limited series or motion picture made for TV

American Crime
American Horror Story: Hotel
Fargo
Flesh and Bone
Wolf Hall

Outside of a possible win for the very British Wolf Hall, this would seem to be a cakewalk for the critically adored Fargo.

Should win: Fargo
Will win: Fargo

Actress in a limited series or motion picture made for TV

Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel
Sarah Hay, Flesh and Bone
Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Queen Latifah, Bessie

Dunst earned raves for her work in Fargo's second season, but a limited series win may be enough of a reward. Instead, consider the novelty value of giving Lady Gaga a Golden Globe not for singing, but for acting. It's unusual, but some odd things can happen in the limited series/TV movie categories. This feels like the Globes' particular brand of oddity.

Should win: Kirsten Dunst, Fargo
Will win: Lady Gaga, American Horror Story: Hotel

Source: YouTube

Actor in a limited series or motion picture made for TV

Idris Elba, Luther
Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
David Oyelowo, Nightingale
Mark Rylance, Wolf Hall
Patrick Wilson, Fargo

Rylance could pull off a double-win here, but Isaac's charm offensive in the Star Wars: The Force Awakens was timed perfectly to the HFPA's voting period. Overall enthusiasm for him will likely bolster his little-seen but spectacular work in the HBO miniseries Show Me a Hero.

Should win: Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero
Will win: Oscar Isaac, Show Me a Hero

Supporting actress in a TV series or motion picture made for TV

Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black
Joanne Frogatt, Downton Abbey
Regina King, American Crime
Judith Light, Transparent
Maura Tierney, The Affair

Could King repeat her Emmy win here? It's possible, but the international HFPA may be kinder to the English Frogatt. Light feels frustratingly impossible even though her role was expanded in season two. Interestingly, Tierney is representing as the only nominee from last year's best drama series winner, The Affair. If voters have any love left over for the Showtime series, she could take home gold.

Should win: Judith Light, Transparent
Will win: Joanne Frogatt, Downton Abbey (with a chance at a Maura Tierney, The Affair spoiler)

Source: YouTube

Supporting actor in a TV series or motion picture made for TV

Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Damian Lewis, Wolf Hall
Ben Mendehlson, Bloodline
Tobias Menzies, Outlander
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot

Cumming's appearance is impressive considering The Good Wife was otherwise blanked, while Slater is a worthy co-nominee to Malek. He'll probably be that show's big win, though Mendehlson truly deserves it for doing ace work in a slog of a show like Bloodline.

Should win: Ben Mendehlson, Bloodline
Will win: Christian Slater, Mr. Robot