Latest Presidential Polls: President Leads in 9 Out of 10 Battleground States According to Republican and Democratic Pollsters
Recent polls are projecting that Obama is winning the battleground states. If the race were to end today, Politico projects that Obama would win, with an electoral count of 332 to 206 for Romney. Politico based its projections on the latest Real Clear Politics polls. Real Clear Politics has Obama winning 9 of 10 battle ground states.
Battleground state polls also indicate that Obama is pulling ahead of Romney. The Christian Science Monitor reported that the NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll surveyed Wisconsin, Colorado, and Iowa and found Obama ahead among likely voters in all three. Obama’s up by 5 points in Wisconsin and Colorado and 8 points in Iowa. The Monitor also said that a recent CNN/ORC International survey had Obama up by 3 points in Nevada
Fox News reported Obama tops Romney by seven percentage points among likely voters in both Ohio and Virginia, and by 5 points in Florida.
Yougov.com found that Obama is leading in 5 battleground states. Obama is up by 4 points in Colorado, 6 points in Iowa, 8 in Nevada, 7 in New Hampshire and 4 in Virginia.
Influential pollster Nate Silver of the NY Times found that Obama is leading in Ohio and Florida that he deems to be the most strategically important swing states. Silver says that Obama has held the lead in 16 of 20 polls conducted since June in Ohio and 14 of 23 polls in Florida. Silver believes that Ohio and Florida have a 32% and 20% chance respectively of deciding the Electoral College. Silver’s assessment is based on his 538 model and 25,000 daily simulations. Silver reports that Obama has led by “clear margins” in all 21 polls that have been run in the 10 most critical battleground states since the DNC. Obama has held a six-point lead in these surveys, and he has had close to 50% of the vote.
In a poll of likely voters across 12 battleground state conducted by Purple Strategies, Yahoo News reports that Obama leads Romney by 5 points. Last month's Purple Poll showed Romney with a slight edge in swing states, 47 percent to Obama's 46 percent.
Rasmussen has the battleground states race much closer. In the 11 swing states, The Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Obama earning 46% of the vote, while Romney receives 45%. Rasmussen says the key battleground states Virginia, Ohio and Florida are currently toss-ups. The polling site says it is virtually impossible to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states.
The most recent Fox News poll reported that in all three states more voters trust Obama than Romney to improve the economy and more voters believe the Obama administration’s policies have helped rather than hurt the economy. The Fox polls also show that Obama is trustworthier than Romney on foreign policy. Obama’s job approval rating and personal favorability are higher in these states than the national average according to the Fox polls and in Ohio and Virginia, Obama’s favorable rating is 10% points higher than Romney’s, and it’s 6 points higher in Florida.
Hutchinson News reported a Washington Post poll of likely Virginia voters showed Obama leading by 8 points and Quinnipiac/CBS/New York Times showed Obama with a 7 percentage point lead.
The Examiner reported that the Marist poll sponsored by Marist College, NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows Obama leading Romney by seven points in Ohio.
Obama’s fundraising in battleground states is gaining momentum. US News citing the Associated Press reported that Obama raised more in high-dollar contributions than Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney during the last two months in 10 of 11 battleground states. In Florida, Obama raised $5.5 million in itemized contributions in July and August compared to $3.7 million for Romney during the same period. In Ohio Obama raised $2.3 million compared to $1.3 million for Romney, during the same period.
Both campaigns recognize the importance of the swing states. On Friday, Obama visited Wisconsin for the first time since February and made 2 campaign trips to Ohio this week. Romney is stepping up his effort in battleground states. Over the next several days Romney will visit 3 highly competitive states, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. Obama and Romney have made multiple visits to Florida and have spent millions on TV ads.
The Battleground States:
Florida
Electoral vote Count: 29 Unemployment Rate: 8.8% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: higher Change in August Labor Report: No Change
Obama carried the state in 2008, but this is a state with a Republican governor and where Republicans have a 2-1 majority in the state legislature. Republicans hold nearly all the statewide offices. The state is the home of Tea Party darlings Allan West and Marco Rubio. The state is also home to Democratic National Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Medicare will be a major issue in the state.
Ohio
Electoral vote Count: 18 Unemployment Rate: 7.2% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: lower Change in August Labor Report: No Change
The state has accurately picked the winning presidential candidates in the last 12 elections. A republican has never won without winning Ohio. In 2010, Republicans swept the state. Jon Kasich defeated an incumbent Democrat for the governorship, Rob Portman won election to the Senate. The auto bailout and last year defeat of a law restricting public workers’ rights to bargain collectively are strong points for Obama.
North Carolina
Electoral vote Count: 15 Unemployment Rate: 9.7% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: higher Change in August Labor Report: 0.1%
Obama won a narrow victory in 2008. Democrats held their national convention in Charlotte and they hope that will generate support for Obama. The state recently voted in favor of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in the state and North Carolina is a right-to-work state. Both of these could cause problems for Obama. Bev Perdue the Democratic governor of the state is not seeking re-election and that has opened up North Carolina to a flood of out of state money as the Democratic and Republican Governor Associations vie for the open seat. Republicans took control of the legislature in 2010 for the first time in a century.
Electoral vote Count: 13 Unemployment Rate: 5.9% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: lower Change in August Labor Report: no change
Obama won Virginia by 7 points in 2008. Virginia is deeply conservative. Virginia has a large number of government workers that may not think kindly of Romney’s argument to reduce the size of the federal government. Virginia’s Republican Attorney General has been a leading opponent of the Affordable Care Act. Virginia’s Republican Governor Bob McConnell is a Romney surrogate and was considered a VP candidate. He is the chairman of the Republican Governors Association. McConnell came under fire this year from for his initial support of trans-vaginal ultrasounds for women seeking an abortion.
Electoral vote Count: 10 Unemployment Rate: 7.5% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: lower Change in August Labor Report: 0.2%
Wisconsin has voted for a Democrat in the last 6 elections. Wisconsin is Paul Ryan‘s home state and that should make it a little more difficult for Obama. The Tea party had two major wins in 2010. Scott Walker won the governorship and Ron Johnson defeated a popular incumbent for a U.S. Senate seat. Walker survived a recall election this year after challenging the labor unions. Democrats are expected to come out in force to show their continuing disapproval of Walker and Republican policies.
Colorado
Electoral vote Count: 9 Unemployment Rate: 8.2% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: higher Change in August Labor Report: 0.1%
Colorado was major victory for Obama in 2008. Obama will look to capitalize on the Democratic wins for Senate and governor in Colorado in 2010. Obama should find a home among the independents and women in that drove the successful Senate and gubernatorial races. The Tea Party and the establishment clashed bitterly in 2010 compromising the state wide GOP ticket.
Nevada
Electoral vote Count: 6 Unemployment Rate: 12.1% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: higher Change in August Labor Report: 0.1%
Obama won Nevada in 2008, but Nevada’s economy has declined badly since Obama came into office. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. The local economy, which is a poster child for the nation, plus the large Mormon population are pluses for Romney. Obama has the advantage with the large Hispanic and lower-income voters. Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader and a Mormon is expected to offset to some degree Romney’s advantage with the large Mormon population. Romney will be counting on Republican Governor Brian Sandoval to get out the Hispanic vote. Sandoval is the first Hispanic candidate elected to statewide office in Nevada.
Obama won Nevada in 2008, but Nevada’s economy has declined badly since Obama came into office. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the country. The local economy, which is a poster child for the nation, plus the large Mormon population are pluses for Romney. Obama has the advantage with the large Hispanic and lower-income voters. Harry Reid, Senate Majority Leader and a Mormon is expected to offset to some degree Romney’s advantage with the large Mormon population. Romney will be counting on Republican Governor Brian Sandoval to get out the Hispanic vote. Sandoval is the first Hispanic candidate elected to statewide office in Nevada.
Iowa
Electoral vote Count: 6 Unemployment Rate: 5.5% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: lower Change in August Labor Report: 0.2%
Iowa is home to Obama’s first presidential primary victory. The large evangelical community should be an asset to Romney. Republicans spent a great deal of time and money in Iowa during their primaries and there should be some residual effect from that time in the state. Republican Governor Terry Branstad is an outspoken critic of Obama. Iowa is also home to controversial Tea Party Congressman Steve King. Among many controversial positions is his support of Todd Akin. Romney has endorsed King for re-election. The farm bill is a key issue for Iowans.
New Hampshire
Electoral vote Count: 4 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% State Rate vs. National Unemployment Rate: lower Change in August Labor Report: 0.3%
New Hampshire is a “home state” for Romney. He has a vacation home there and is viewed as a home favorite. VP Joe Biden has the task of winning New Hampshire for Obama. The state trends Democratic but Independents make up 40% of the vote. New Hampshire is 1 of 6 states that has legalized same-sex marriage. The others being NY. MA, IA, CT, VT. DC also has legalized same-sex marriage.
