'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 2' predictions: The remaining queens' chances, ranked

'RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 2' predictions: The remaining queens' chances, ranked

We're down to the final four queens on RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars season two, and if the most recent episode is any indication, it is going to be a bloody fight to the finish.

(Editor's note: Spoilers ahead for the second season of RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars, as well as the fifth season of RuPaul's Drag Race.)

The three members of former season five gang Rolaskatox have carried each other to the finale, taking full advantage of this season's flipped elimination format that allows the winner of each week to choose who goes home. Alaska consistently saved her fellow season five runner-up Roxxxy Andrews, opting not to eliminate her three times. 

Then, in the final episode before the finale, fellow season five queen Detox won the Lip Sync for Your Legacy against season seven's oddball Katya, choosing to eliminate season five favorite Alyssa Edwards over Roxxxy (once again in the bottom) and Alaska (who threw a tantrum upon hitting the bottom). It was a choice that shocked even RuPaul, who gasped at Detox's decision.

So, as Alaska notes in the trailer for the All Stars 2 finale, the final four are the three members of Rolaskatox and a quirky queen with a lot of fan support. That exact same thing happened in season five, when Seattle narcoleptic Jinkx Monsoon beat them all to the crown. Will history repeat itself? Does a member of Rolaskatox stand a chance?

Let's break down the remaining four queens' chances, from least- to most-likely to win it all.

4. Roxxxy Andrews

There has never been a queen who has survived more than three trips to the bottom on RuPaul's Drag Race. Coco Montrese was eliminated on her fourth trip in season five, and she was the previous record-holder — until Roxxxy on All Stars 2. The former runner-up hit the bottom five times this season, a significant downfall after winning the first challenge of the season.

Roxxxy is not going to win All Stars 2. Certainly even Roxxxy knows this. For a queen who spent almost the entire season up for elimination to take the crown would make a mockery of Drag Race. It's a shame, too; Roxxxy really matured as a person since her season, but she just couldn't compete this time.

Another thing to note: Since season four, Ru has asked fans to chime in with their own opinions on social media of who should win. All possible results have been filmed, but Ru doesn't decide who wins (nor does she choose which winning clip to use) until she's heard from the fans. 

Ultimately, the decision is still Ru's, and she doesn't always go with the most popular queen, but it seems like she avoids picking a deeply disliked winner. For example, frontrunner Ginger Minj lost season seven to Violet Chachki, who had strong fan support but not as strong as fellow top three queen Pearl.

So it's worth noting that Roxxxy is currently sitting with the least fan support on Twitter. This really only worsens her already-terrible chances.

Odds: 100-1

3. Detox

Through the whole season, Detox hasn't really done anything wrong — her one trip to the bottom three seemed more like a fluke of numbers than anything, and she's won three challenges. She even won the Lip Sync for Your Legacy on Thursday's episode. She's a solid competitor.

That said, it's hard to get that excited about Detox. She's good without being remarkable, strong without being exciting. Her fashion is sickening, but even in her best performance moments, she's failed to make the majority of viewers gag in the way they do over Katya, Alaska or Alyssa. As a result, her current Twitter numbers aren't much better than Roxxxy's.

Frankly, if a member of Rolaskatox is going to win, it's going to be Alaska. Detox should be proud of her run — she made it to the finals, which she didn't in her original season — but this is pretty much the end of the line.

Odds: 30-1

2. Alaska

We wrote about Alaska's meltdown in Thursday's episode recap already, but let's be clear: That tantrum, complete with an attempt to bribe Detox that is not played as a joke, is the only thing that could keep Alaska from the crown — and it may.

From our recap:

Ru and her story editors chose to show Alaska trying to bribe Detox to save her, and they chose to not edit it as a joke or funny moment. If the show's producers want a winner free of the stench of controversy, one who fans can rally behind, why would they include that footage? Why would they choose to do that?

The inclusion of that clip, combined with Alaska's unpopular decisions to eliminate Tatianna over Roxxxy, spells doom. Alaska does have more retweets and likes on Twitter than her Rolaskatox comrades, but — well, we'll get back to that in Katya's section.

Yet the question remains: Why did Ru and the producers decide Alaska, who won four challenges and three lip syncs this season, should be subject to a downfall edit? Eliminating Tatianna wasn't that big of a mistake, and again, the bribe and tantrum could have been edited very differently.

Here's where things get tricky. After All Stars 2 was shot, a man who was apparently Alaska's ex-boyfriend posted a number of details about the season he said Alaska told him on his Instagram account. The posts are now gone, but one Reddit user took screenshots. This included almost the full cast of All Stars 2, Coco Montrese being the first-eliminated queen, Adore Delano walking out and Tatianna returning to the competition. His stated top four matches perfectly with the actual top four — and this leak came out almost a year ago.

If Alaska did indeed tell her boyfriend these things, that could very well be a violation of a non-disclosure agreement. Such an agreement is standard for those competing on reality TV shows; it's very likely the All Stars 2 queens signed them. And this potential violation could disqualify Alaska.

So it's very possible Drag Race needed to find an alternate winner, and it needed to make Alaska's win look less inevitable. Considering Alaska's suddenly very unkind edit, it's not hard to imagine something is going on behind the scenes. Judging on pure challenge performance, this should be Alaska's win. But don't be shocked if she doesn't take it.

Odds: 3-1

1. Katya

Before anything else, let's look at Katya's numbers on Twitter. Surely she must be doing decent, maybe just short of Alaska's.

Oh.

As of Friday afternoon, if you add up all the other queens' retweets, you get 979 retweets (80 for Roxxxy, 233 for Detox and 666 for Alaska). Katya, at 10,928 retweets, has over 10 times the number of all of Rolaskatox combined.

So, yes, Katya's the fan favorite. Again, previously Ru has not chosen the most popular queen, like season eight's Bob the Drag Queen beating Kim Chi. But in those cases, the winning queen has at least had a solid base of support. Kim didn't even have double the number of retweets as Bob, much less 10 times.

Considering all the drama with Alaska, it's hard to believe Ru won't crown Katya. She's easily the favorite among viewers, won three challenges (albeit no lip syncs) — and watching her join Jinkx in the Rolaskatox-slaying hall of fame would be a delicious twist of fate.

It's not over yet: Ru could decide to buck possible scandals, ignore fan love and give it to Alaska. But for the first time since the season began, it really feels like Alaska could lose — and more importantly, that Katya can win.

Odds: 2-1