How will the Donald Trump leaked audio affect the polls at this stage of the race?

How will the Donald Trump leaked audio affect the polls at this stage of the race?
Source: AP
Source: AP

Friday afternoon, leaked audio tape revealed Republican nominee Donald Trump making crude, aggressive comments — bragging that his celebrity status made it easier for him to grab women without consent.  

"Grab them by the pussy," Trump says on the audio clip. "You can do anything."

Despite a rare apology from the candidate, Trump has been outed as someone who openly touts his desire to disrespect and assault women. 

With the election happening in one month — Nov. 8, to be exact — how will this affect Trump in the polls? 

While polls that are able to capture the effect of the leaked audio tape won't come out for a few days, here's what we know about the polls right now: 

Hillary Clinton was already on an upswing. Buoyed by a great performance in the first presidential debate, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was enjoying a comfortable lead going into Friday afternoon. According to polling website FiveThirtyEight, Clinton had a 55% chance of winning the presidency before the debate, but as of Monday, she was at a 72% chance of winning. 

As of press time, she is at 82% in their polls-only prediction model

Undecided voters are helping Clinton take the lead. 

While the percentage of undecided voters is higher than it was at this point in the past two elections, the number of people who are undecided or voting for a third party candidate is steadily decreasing. Given that this decrease coincides with Clinton's debate performance and her upswing in the polls, undecided voters seem to be coming down in favor of Clinton.

While we don't yet have any idea of how Trump's audio leak will affect the number of votes he receives come Nov. 8, the candidate's prospects don't look great. As pollster Nate Silver pointed out in a tweet in March, you can't win an election without winning women's votes. 

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Mathew Rodriguez

Mathew Rodriguez is a Staff Writer at Mic. He is a queer Latino New Yorker who enjoys female rappers, Buffy the Vampire Slayer and Flannery O'Connor. He is a former editor at TheBody.com and he is working on a memoir.

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