Presidential polls 2016: Here's who's winning every major state race

Presidential polls 2016: Here's who's winning every major state race
Source: AP
Source: AP

As Election Day draws near, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are increasingly focused on several battleground states which will determine who becomes the next president of the United States.

Here's where the candidates are polling in every major state race.

Presidential polls in Arizona

Despite rising in the national polls, Clinton has a fight on her hands in Arizona. Trump and Clinton have battled it out in the polls in the Grand Canyon State recently, each within just a few points of the other.

RealClearPolitics gives Trump a one-point lead over Clinton in an average of state polls. But, that's according to the most recent polling, which was conducted before Trump's sexual assault controversy and before the second presidential debate.

The latest poll in Arizona was conducted by Emerson from Oct. 2-4. Weighted by for other factors, this poll has Clinton up by 5 points, her biggest margin in recent months.

The state has 11 electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 52.5% chance of winning there.

Republican Sen. John McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987 and is facing his own tough re-election bid, recently withdrew his support for Trump.


Presidential polls in Florida

Both Clinton and Trump are campaigning hard in the crucial Sunshine State. A RealClearPolitics average of state polls, as of Oct. 11, gives Clinton a 2.7-point edge. The latest poll, conducted by Opinion Savvy, gives Clinton a three-point lead.  

FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 75% chance of taking the state. Florida has 29 electoral college votes.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, one of Trump's GOP primary opponents, denounced the real estate tycoon's recent vulgar comments about women, but he has not withdrawn his support for the Republican nominee.


Presidential polls in Iowa

Trump is leading in Iowa, a state which has just six electoral college votes but holds heavy influence in presidential elections. "A win in either state sometimes gives a candidate an air of inevitability, as was the case with Barack Obama, who won Iowa in 2008, overtaking Hillary Clinton," the Economist explains.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won Iowa's GOP caucuses, but Trump wasn't far behind and has been polling well in Iowa. A RealClearPolitics average of state polls puts Trump ahead of Clinton by 3.7 points.

The latest Des Moines Register poll, conducted from Oct. 3-6, puts Trump up by 4 points. Still, FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 59.2% chance of winning in Iowa.

Presidential polls in North Carolina

Trump has been competitive in North Carolina, but the latest polls show him trailing Clinton in recent weeks. RealClearPolitics gives Clinton a 2.5-point lead in an average of state polls.

The latest Suffolk University poll, conducted from Oct. 10-12, shows Clinton with a two-point lead over Trump. Much of the state has been recovering from Hurricane Matthew. The deadline to register to vote by mail is Friday and hasn't been extended as it was in Florida, but voters can register in person by Nov. 5.

North Carolina has 15 electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 70.2% chance of winning.

Presidential polls in Ohio

Clinton appears to have gotten a boost in Ohio since a 2005 videotape surfaced of Trump making crude comments about women. 

A RealClearPolitics average of state polls gives Clinton a five-point lead over Trump. And a Baldwin Wallace University poll conducted from Oct. 9-11 puts her nine points ahead.

Both President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton will hold events in Ohio on Friday. And Trump is heading there on Thursday night, after his speech in Florida.

Ohio has 18 electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 68% chance of winning this crucial battleground state.

Presidential polls in Pennsylvania

Clinton has had a steady lead in Pennsylvania in recent weeks and, according to a Bloomberg poll released Thursday, she is now up by nine points.

A RealClearPolitics average of state polls gives Clinton a 8.7-point lead over Trump in the Keystone State.

Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence has two campaign events in Pennsylvania on Thursday night. The state has 20 electoral college votes and FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton an 89.7% chance of winning.

Presidential polls in Utah

The polls in Utah are fascinating this year. Not just because of Trump and Clinton, but because of the rise of a third-party candidate, Evan McMullin.

A Monmouth University poll released on Thursday shows the Independent Party candidate with 20% of the vote, compared to Trump's 34% and Clinton's 28%.

A RearClearPolitics average of state polls gives Trump a 14.7-point lead over Clinton in a head-to-head matchup. The state has six electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight hands it to Trump, with an 85.3% chance of winning the state.

Presidential polls in Virginia

On Thursday morning, NBC News reported the Trump campaign was pulling out of the battleground state of Virginia. It's not hard to see why: Clinton has been leading in the polls steadily there.

RealClearPoliticsaverage of state polls give Clinton a 7.5-point lead over Trump. A recent Hampton University poll put her up as high as 12 points ahead.

Neither candidate has any appearances planned in Virginia in the coming days.

Virginia has 13 electoral college votes. FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 92.3% chance of winning.

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