November may substantially alter what is assumed about how each state votes in presidential elections. For decades, it has been assumed that Democrats and Republicans each began Election Day with a bastion of solid support. But the contentious nature of 2016, demographic shifts and the focus of each candidate has changed the electoral map. So far, this shift has not been friendly to Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton leads Trump in several swing states critical to the Republican's bid for the White House. In Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, Clinton has the lead. In Pennsylvania and Virginia, states Trump once hoped to put in play, the Democrat has taken a decisive lead.
With a new poll on Monday showing Trump up 4 percentage points in Ohio, Clinton's lead there has narrowed to a statistical tie. Yet polls show the Democrat holding her lead in Florida and North Carolina.
RealClearPolitics projected Clinton will begin Election Day with 256 electoral votes from states that are leaning, likely or near guaranteed to vote in her favor. That leaves her 14 electoral votes short of victory, support that could be drawn from a win in Florida, North Carolina or Ohio alone. With Trump polling behind in several of his must-win states, FiveThirtyEight forecasted a better-than-80% chance of a Clinton victory.