2016 Presidential Polls: Last-minute Election Day predictions for Trump and Clinton

2016 Presidential Polls: Last-minute Election Day predictions for Trump and Clinton
Source: Getty Images
Source: Getty Images

Voters head to the polls tomorrow to choose between two very different candidates: bomb-throwing Republican nominee Donald Trump and fairly conventional Democrat Hillary Clinton. Here's what the latest polls say about the nail-biter of a race with just one day left before the final results will (hopefully) come in.

Who is ahead in the polls?

Currently, Clinton has managed to maintain her edge in the polls. In the four-way race between Clinton, Trump and third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton holds an average lead of 3.2% over Trump — a less impressive lead than at certain other points in the race, but still a lead.

Poll-tracking website FiveThirtyEight, which continually updates a polls-only model as well as another incorporating historical and economic data, finds Trump has only a 31.5% chance of victory in the former and a 30.9% chance of victory in the latter as of Monday afternoon.

That's a major improvement from weeks ago, when the GOP nominee's chances slid into the mid-to-low tens.

The New York Times is among the most bullish on Clinton's chances, giving her an 84% chance of victory going into Nov. 8.

The most recent polls show Clinton maintaining her advantage heading into the election on Tuesday, with the Democrat holding a 3% lead in a Bloomberg poll and the same in another Politico/Morning Consult survey.

How accurate are the polls?

Though scientifically administered polls are generally accurate, individual polls vary widely in accuracy and reflect various differences in methodology (or bias).

Therefore, it's better to rely on aggregations of polls so as to minimize the amount of noise that could be inferred by any one survey that's far off the mark. In general, these aggregators are leaning toward Clinton, some by a wide margin and others by a more narrow one.

If Trump wins on Nov. 8, it may also boil down to factors that polls are poor at accounting for, such as any sudden breaking news events — whose influence on polling data often takes a few days to become apparent — or an unexpectedly low voter turnout. But, with one day out, Clinton's window to victory looks a lot larger than Trump's.

How much do you trust the information in this article?

Tom McKay

Tom is a staff writer at Mic, covering national politics, media, policing and the war on drugs. He is based in New York and can be reached at tmckay@mic.com.

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