Who is going to win the presidential election? Latest updates on Election Day 2016

Who is going to win the presidential election? Latest updates on Election Day 2016
Source: AP
Source: AP

No one can say for sure who is going to win the presidential election, not until all the ballots are counted or one candidate reaches the threshold 270 electoral votes. Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination is testament to the fact that, truly, anything could happen. 

That said, forecasts look favorable for Clinton. At time of writing, FiveThirtyEight, Huffington Post, the New York Times' Upshot and RealClearPolitics have each predicted that the 2016 election would end with a woman voted into the White House.

We'll be updating this post with the latest polling figures throughout the day.

11:10 p.m.

• Though Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain close in the electoral college, Trump is giving the Democratic nominee a run for her money and the odds don't look good for her.

• Trump has 172 electoral college votes to Clinton's 168 as of around 11:05 p.m. Tuesday night. Trump leads with 40.73 million votes to Clinton's 38.53 million.

• Currently, the NYT's projection has Trump as a lock to win the presidency while FiveThirtyEight's less bullish model currently has the candidates neck and neck at a 49% chance each of victory.

• Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania remain too close to call and will prove crucial in determining the victor.

• Florida has been called for Trump.

10:42 p.m.

• As of 10:42 p.m., FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 52% chance of winning the presidency to Trump's 47% chance.


• The New York Times' live interactive Election Night forecast was strongly trending towards Trump, giving him an 92% chance of winning the presidency based on votes reported so far and past elections.

• So far, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming had been called for Trump, according to the Associated Press.

• As of 10:35 p.m., Clinton had taken Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

10:10 p.m.

• As of 10:11 p.m., FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 60% chance of winning the presidency to Trump's 38% chance.

• The New York Times' live interactive Election Night forecast was trending towards Trump, giving him a 77% chance of winning the presidency based on votes reported so far and past elections.

• So far, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, West Virginia and Wyoming had been called for Trump, according to the Associated Press. 

• As of 10:00 p.m., Clinton had taken Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and the District of Columbia.

7:50 p.m.

Slate's VoteCastr, which combines voter turnout data with pre-Election Day polling, still shows Hillary Clinton with a lead in every major swing state, including Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though her leads in Iowa, Nevada and Ohio are razor-thin.

• As of 7:44 p.m., the New York Times has called Kentucky, Indiana and West Virginia for Trump, and Vermont for Clinton.

• The race in Florida remains too close to call, with Clinton retaking the lead after Trump led earlier in the evening. In North Carolina, Trump has a major lead but many precincts are not yet reporting.

6:20 p.m.

Slate's VoteCastr, which uses voter turnout in conjunction with pre-Election Day polling to project the outcome, has Hillary Clinton ahead in every swing state, with exceptionally high voter turnout in Florida. However, Clinton's lead, for the most part, remains modest. 

• FiveThirtyEight's final pre-election forecast remains the same as it did earlier in the day, giving Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning compared to Trump's 28.6%. 

• The New York Times' Upshot has kept Clinton's chances of winning at 85%.

• Huffington Post's still has its bold prediction of a 98% chance of a Clinton victory.

• Boots, the psychic Scottish goat, still reportedly believes Clinton will win.

3:30 p.m.

Slate's VoteCastr projections, which factor in early voting and ballots cast on Election Day, show Hillary Clinton ahead in every single swing state.

• FiveThirtyEight's final pre-election forecast holds basically steady on its numbers from the morning, predicting Clinton ahead of Trump with a 71.4% chance of victory to his 28.6%. 

• The Upshot bumps Clinton's chances of winning one percentage point, predicting that she has an 85% chance of winning the general election.

Huffington Post's certainty that Clinton will win dips incrementally, down to 98% from the 98.2% predicting in the morning.

• The Scottish goat has not wavered in its prediction that Clinton will win.

8:30 a.m.

FiveThirtyEight's forecast model puts Clinton ahead of Trump, with a 71.6% chance of victory to his 28.4%. 

• The Upshot predicts an 84% chance of a Clinton victory and a 16% chance of a Trump victory.

• The Huffington Post gives the election to Clinton, 98.2% to Trump's 1.5%.

• According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton is ahead in the polls, with an average lead of 3.2 points on Trump. 

• And, of course, this Scottish goat is gunning for Clinton

How much do you trust the information in this article?

Claire Lampen

Claire is a staff writer at Mic who covers women's issues and reproductive rights. She is based in New York and can be reached at claire@mic.com.

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