Presidential Polls 2012: Rasmussen, Pew Show Romney Surging Nationally and in Swing States

Last week, the big buzz was that the Romney campaign was teetering. He was trailing in both the national and the swing state polls. Then came the first presidential debate in Denver. The day of the debate, Obama was leading Romney 49.1% to 46% according to Real Clear Politics, a spread of 3.1 points.

Now 6 days later, Romney has caught up to Obama. According to Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Romney by 0.5 points, 47.9% to 47.4%. Obama’s massive lead has now vanished.


The surge forward by the GOP nominee is not entirely a surprise. Gallup is now reporting his debate win to be the biggest ever. Seven-two percent of those polled gave the win to Romney, while only 20% believed that Obama won the first debate.

Romney is now either tied or ahead of President Obama in several major polls. One does not have to be a Dick Morris to realize that all signs are pointing to what could be the biggest political comeback in 32 years.

In a new poll from Pew Research Center, Romney now leads Obama, 49% to 45%. Romney was previously down by 8 in a recent Pew poll, showing an incredible 12-point swing. The same poll shows that 82% of Romney supporters have given the election a lot of thought, as opposed to only 67% of Obama supporters. The poll was conducted October 4-7 among 1,511 adults, 1,201 of which were likely voters. When it comes to overall favorability, Romney now beats Obama, 50% to 49%. Obama's huge lead with women has been all but wiped out. The two are now statistically even with that democgraphic

How bad is this 12-point swing? Well, just ask The Daily Beast's Andrew Sullivan, who seems just about ready to commit Harakiri. 

The implied enthusiasm gap has been reaffirmed by a recent Politico/George Washington University Poll. Seventy-three percent of Obama's supporters are extremely likely to vote. Eighty-six percent of those who back Mitt Romney are calling themselves extremly likely to vote for him. The numbers are nearly identical when broken down between Republicans and Democrats.  

Also making waves is the latest Military Times poll. A survey of 3,100 active duty and reserve troops shows an overwhelming lead for Romney. Sixty-six percent support Romney, while only 26% support Obama. The economy was the top concern amongst those surveyed. 

Gallup showed a 5-point surge by the Republican challenger. Before the debate, Romney was trailing the president, 50% to 45%. Now they are evenly tied at 47% each among registered voters. Tuesday’s Rasmussen poll shows Romney and Obama tied at 48% each.

As for those critical swing states that Obama was magically leading in a week again by a dozen points? According to EPIC-MRA of Lansing, Michigan, Obama only leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 45%. In Pennsylvania, Obama only leads Romney by a razor-thin 47% to 45%.

Rasmussen today reports that Romney is now up in 11 swing states. The challenger has flipped the numbers and now leads Obama 49% to 47%, an absolutely massive turnaround. 

The latest Washington Times/Zogby poll shows that Romney has erased the 9-point deficit, and now leads Obama 45.1% to 44.5% when only the two candidates were mentioned. When third-party Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was included, Obama leads 45.5% to 45%, well within the margin of error.With independents and voters that were primarily concerned about the economy, Romney has gained a comfortable lead.

The lead with independents cannot be understated. In 2008, President Obama's victory over John McCain included an eight point margin with independents, 52-44. As of Monday, Romney is now ahead of Obama with independents 52-35, a 16-point margin. The same polls also show a 13-point enthusiasm gap for the Republicans. This of course is not good news for the embattled incumbent, but unfortunately for him it gets worse. According to Breitbart, 85% of the calls for these pollswere made right before Obama's beating in the Denver, Colorado debate.

The icing on the cake this week for the Romney campaign? He is leading in absentee votes in Florida, and has closed the gap in Ohio and North Carolina. 

As Mitt Romney moves into a statistical tie across the nation and continues to build momentum, all eyes now turn to Thursday nights debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan. A home run from Ryan could sent the Republican ticket well into the lead. 

Remember a week ago when people were saying that the debates didn't really matter?

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Jesse Merkel

Jesse currently works as a Content Engineer for HubShout, LLC. In the past, he wrote about the political scene in his hometown of Rochester, NY for Examiner.com. Prior to becoming a writer, Jesse worked as a professional guitarist and private music instructor for over seven and a half years, while also volunteering on several local and national political campaigns. These days, Jesse enjoys writing about music, movies and pop culture, and is a die hard Trekker.

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