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The Golden Globes are not known for their precise taste. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which votes on the Globes, are often drawn to what is new and shiny, and especially what has high star wattage in Hollywood. If you're a character actor up against a movie star, unless you're on your way to an Oscar, you're likely not winning.

That said, there are plenty of exceptions to that rule — it's all about how the voters feel in a given year. Predicting what will win, then, is a bit tricky: How will the HFPA go in 2017? 

Here's what we're expecting to win — and what we wish would, with a bit of commentary when needed — at the 74th annual Golden Globe Awards on Jan. 8, 2017.

Motion picture, drama

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Moonlight
Will win: Moonlight, but could just as easily be Manchester by the Sea

Motion picture, musical or comedy

20th Century Women
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Should win: 20th Century Women
Will win: La La Land, in its march toward the Oscars

Actor in a motion picture, drama

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Should win: Affleck, with a nod to the stoic and strong Edgerton
Will win: Affleck

Actress in a motion picture, drama

Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Should win: Adams, in the year's smartest film
Will win: Portman

Actor in a motion picture, comedy or musical

Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Should win: Grant, for his career-best work
Will win: Gosling, but don't be floored if Reynolds takes it

Actress in a motion picture, comedy or musical

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Should win: Bening, for the best line readings of the year
Will win: Stone, for one of the most magical scenes of the year
Honorable mention: Steinfeld, who wouldn't rank higher than third on this list for me, but whose work is super smart and representative of what a good comedy performance is

Supporting actor in a motion picture

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Should win: Ali, with arguably the performance of the year
Will win: Ali, in the rare instance of great art matching up with awards preferences

Supporting actress in a motion picture

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Davis or Harris, both deserving
Will win: Williams, but could be Davis

Director of a motion picture

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Should win: Jenkins
Will win: Chazelle, as he will until the Oscars

Animated motion picture

Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini

Should win: Zootopia
Will win: Moana, though this race feels closer than before

Original song for a motion picture

"Can't Stop the Feeling," from Trolls
"City of Stars," from La La Land
"Faith," from Sing
"Gold," from Gold
"How Far I'll Go," Moana

Should win: "How Far I'll Go"
Will win: "Can't Stop the Feeling"

Original score for a motion picture

Hidden Figures
La La Land

Should win: Arrival; the score is just beautiful
Will win: La La Land

Screenplay for a motion picture

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Should win: Moonlight
Will win: Manchester by the Sea

TV series, drama

The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us

Should win: Game of Thrones
Will win: The Crown

TV series, musical or comedy

Mozart in the Jungle

Should win: Mozart in the Jungle, ever an under-appreciated treasure
Will win: Veep

TV series, limited

American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Should win: American Crime, an audacious piece of television
Will win: The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Actress in a limited series or TV movie

Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

Should win: Huffman, for her under-rewarded work
Will win: Paulson, who deserves every trophy she gets

Actor in a limited series or TV movie

Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Should win: Vance
Will win: Vance won the Emmy, and this category is a bit free of star power, so he could repeat

Actress in a TV musical or comedy

Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish

Should win: Bloom, but arguments could be made for Rae, Louis-Dreyfus, Rodriguez and Ross
Will win: Parker, but could be Bloom again

Actor in a TV musical or comedy

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Should win: Garcia Bernal, giving the most energetic performance on TV
Will win: Glover; it feels like his time

Actress in a TV drama

Caitriona Balfa, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Should win: Ryder, for a buzzy homecoming performance
Will win: Wood; she just won at the Critics Choice Awards

Actor in a TV drama

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Matthew Rhys, The Americans 
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

Should win: Malek
Will win: Malek

Supporting actor in a TV series

Sterling K. Brown, The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Should win: Brown, but he's got star-powered internal competition ...
Will win: ... which means Travolta's taking this

Supporting actress in a TV series

Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

Should win: Headey
Will win: Newton