In a race that is that is still too close to call, President Obama is maintaining his lead in the all too critical battleground states. Obama is maintaining his lead amongst likely woman voters, and the decline in the unemployment rate continues to bolster his chances of winning the battleground states. Although Real Clear Politics has Romney temporarily in the lead, results from the second debate have not been felt as yet in all the national and state-by-state polls. Neither camp is sitting on its laurels, as they have begun pouring money into the states.
Going into Monday’s final presidential debate, both campaigns continue to spend heavily on ads in the swing states. The New York Times reports that the Romney super PAC, Restore Our Future has purchased six days of ads at a cost of $12 million dollars to be played in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The Times said, Restore Our Future has reserved around $1 million in airtime for Iowa and Wisconsin, an amount that ensures its message will be on television in heavy rotation because of their smaller-sized media markets. The Super PAC has also committed $2.5 million to Ohio and $2.3 million to Florida. The Detroit Free Press reports that groups supporting Romney have matched or exceeded Obama’s spending in the key battleground states. The article said, “An Associated Press analysis of presidential campaign advertising data from April through last week found that pro-Romney spending has exceeded pro-Obama ad spending by at least $65 million across the nine states expected to decide the election: Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Wisconsin.”
The Obama campaign has also been spending heavily in the battleground states. CNN reports that the Obama campaign has purchased an additional six million in ad time in seven battleground states. Obama has spent $49 million this month on ad buys.
Real Clear Politics has Romney ahead in electoral votes for the first time. RCP shows Romney with 206 likely electoral votes, Obama with 201 and 10 battleground states totaling 131 votes.
Looking further into the aggregate poll site numbers finds that eight of the ten listed battleground states have Obama leading in the polls, including, Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Ohio (18). Those three states represent 54 electoral votes which brings Obama’s total to 255.
According to RCP if the race were to end today Obama would win with a projected 294 electoral votes to Romney’s 244.
According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted this week (Mon – Wed), Obama is maintaining his lead in Iowa and Wisconsin. In Iowa, which represents six electoral votes, Obama has an eight-point lead on Romney. 51% of likely Iowan voters favor Obama to 43% for Romney. In Wisconsin, which represents 10 electoral votes, Obama is ahead by six points amongst likely voters with 51% to Romney’s 45%. NBC’s battleground state maps shows that if Obama wins Iowa and Wisconsin then his path to 270 electoral votes comes down to a 3-2-1 formula. Obama would win by either winning 1) Just Ohio 2) A combination of New Hampshire and Virginia or 3) A combination of Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire. NBC’s battleground state map has Obama leading Romney 243 electoral votes to Romney’s 191 with eight battleground states representing 104 electoral votes.
In Iowa Obama’s lead is bolstered by early voting and a double-digit lead amongst women voters. According to NBC, “34% of likely voters in the poll say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those people, 67 percent to 32%.”
Amongst Iowan women Obama leads Romney 57% to 38%. In Wisconsin, Obama also has a double digit lead amongst woman, 57% to Romney’s 39%.
Iowa and Wisconsin voters also feel that Obama’s economic policies are working. NBC reports that in Iowa, 48 percent of likely voters say the country is headed in the right direction, which is up five points from September. In Wisconsin, 45 percent believe it’s headed on the right track, up six points.
In addition to the favorable economic approval ratings from Iowa and Wisconsin, Bloomberg News reports that the unemployment rate dropped in six key battleground states in September. The financial news agency reported that unemployment fell in Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida, Iowa and Nevada. The rate was unchanged from August in New Hampshire and Virginia. Joblessness in five of the states is less than the national average of 7.8%. The Hill reported that the unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to 5.2% in Iowa and from 7.5% to 7.3% in Wisconsin.
The Huffington Post reported that based on eight new polls released on Thursday Obama “continues to lead by statistically meaningful margins of 2 percentage points or better in states like Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. These states would combine to give Obama a total of 277 electoral votes (seven more than needed to win) when combined with other states showing him leading by larger margins.” HuffPost’s pollster tracking model has Obama winning 277 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.
Rasmussen Reports 2012 Electoral College Scoreboard has Obama leading 237 electoral votes to Romney’s 196 electoral votes with nine battleground states representing 105 electoral votes. Rasmussen polls have Obama leading in New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes). The 28 votes would bring Obama’s total to 265 electoral votes based on Rasmussen projections. In Nevada, Rasmussen reports Obama hit the 50% mark for the first time since July.
Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire chronicle has Obama winning in seven of nine battleground states, including Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Nate Silver’s highly respected 538 blog hosted by the New York Times projects Obama winning 292 electoral votes to Romney’s 246 electoral vote. Silver gives Obama a 70% chance of winning while Romney only has a 30% chance.