With less than two weeks left before the election, President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will focus the rest of their campaigns on the nine key battleground swing state: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. The polls in these battleground states have tightened up, and that is not a good sign for Obama.
In 2008, Obama won all but two of these swing states by a margin greater than six points, winning Ohio by 4.6% and Florida by 2.8%. Up until a month ago, Obama held significant leads in all nine of the battleground states. However, everything changed for Obama after his terrible performance in the first debate on October 4. Ever since the first debate, both national and battleground state polls have tightened, or flipped in favor of Romney.
In the state of New Hampshire, the Real Clear Politics Poll indicates that Obama is leading by .8%. (In 2008, Obama carried the state of New Hampshire by 9.6%.) In both the Rasmussen Poll and the American Research Group Poll, Romney is leading the president by two points. There is only one poll that shows Obama ahead in New Hampshire: the University of New Hampshire Poll has Obama by nine points. With only one poll showing Obama in the lead, things are definitely not looking good for the president in New Hampshire.
The Real Clear Politics Poll in Iowa shows that Obama has a 2% lead over Romney. There are two polls that put Obama in lead, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll and the We Ask America Poll. The NBC/WSJ Poll has Obama up by eight points and the We Ask America Poll has Obama up by three points. Only one poll, the Public Policy Polling Poll, has Romney leading, by one point. There are also two polls that have Obama and Romney in a tie: American Research Group Poll and Rasmussen Poll. When the Rasmussen Poll has him in a tie in Iowa, Obama is in real trouble.
According to Real Clear Politics, Obama still has a comfortable lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Real Clear Politics Poll in Pennsylvania has Obama leading by 4.8%, while the Real Clear Politics Poll in Michigan has Obama up by 4%. Michigan and Pennsylvania are the two battleground states that Obama doesn’t have to worry about losing.
However, there are three states that have broken in the direction for Romney: Colorado, Florida, and Virginia. In Virginia, the Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by 1.4% ; in Florida, the Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by 1.7%; and in Colorado, the Real Clear Politics Poll has Romney up by .2%. Despite having a narrow lead in Colorado, it seems clear that Florida and Virginia have definitely been going in Romney’s direction.
Regarding Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama won these states by double digits in 2008. However, the race has tightened incredibly in 2012. In Wisconsin, the Real Clear Politics Poll show Obama leading by 2.7%, as does the Real Clear Politics Poll in Nevada.
Ohio is the swing state that has gotten the most attention, and which some consider the most important battleground state. In the state of Ohio, the Real Clear Politics Poll has Obama leading by 2.1%. There are zero polls that have Romney leading Obama in Ohio; however, there are three polls that have Romney tied with Obama ( the Rasmussen Poll, the Suffolk University Poll and the Gravis Marketing Poll.)
With all of the swing states either tightening up or breaking for Romney, the general trend in the election is not looking good for Obama.