Ohio Presidential Polls: Obama Has Edge For Now, But Romney Could Eke Out a Win

Thousands upon thousands of volunteers and activists have been descending on Ohio during the presidential contest, where according to the latest poll, President Obama leads by two points. Most prognosticators will tell you it is because without the state Romney cannot win, and Obama has a huge base of supporters as a result of the auto bailouts. With 18 electoral votes, it is one of the larger prizes remaining among the battleground states, and it has a competitive Senate race between incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) and Josh Mandel (R) that Republicans will likely have to pick up in order to regain a majority in the upper chamber. The sheer amount of resources being poured into Ohio is mind-boggling. The real question is, what do the voters see on the ground?

Salli Jones is one such voter, and she's exactly the type of voter that the campaigns are targeting.  Although she's admittedly a left-of-center leaner, she says she's undecided in this election in both the presidential and senate races here. She says the overabundance of negative campaigning has been off-putting, and she may be speaking for most Ohioans. Bloomberg reports that over 58,000 presidential campaign ads have ran in Ohio over the last month, and the impact on voter preferences has been questionable.

Jones also noted the quality of canvassers has been less that phenomenal, too:

"[The canvasser] initially addressed me by the wrong name. I pointed out my correct name and address on his sheet. After a long pause, he asked me the questions about the campaign, candidate support, etc. I identified myself as undecided. He marked me as (not exactly as worded on the sheet) leaning towards Romney and entered my answers next to a different name/address. I pointed out these errors, and he merely handed me some campaign literature without discussing anything about the campaign, said thanks and left."

At some point, the campaigning becomes overkill, and it appears that Ohio might be a victim of this.  Quantity appears to be killing quality. Nonetheless, Obama continues to lead Romney in the polls according to Real Clear Politics. However, some interesting early voting numbers are also suggesting the Romney machine might be doing what is necessary to win the state's electoral votes. For her part, Jones says in her neck of the woods, Romney and Brown have slight edges in their respective contests.  

Any prediction in Ohio is as likely to be wrong as it is right, but look for Romney to just edge out Obama by a meager margin — no more than 2%, but likely closer to 1%.

----------

Editor's Note: Each day, Rob Lee will provide analysis of key swing states leading up to the election. Each of these states are identified as swing states by Real Clear Politics. In addition to the presidential contest, each state also offers an array of competitive Senate and House races that will influence the agenda of the president, whoever emerges victorious next week. Tune back in tomorrow as Wisconsin is evaluated.

How likely are you to make Mic your go-to news source?

Robert Lee

I'm a political consultant that started a conservative firm in Chicago, and recently relocated to Atlanta. 2g Strategies, LLC develops, implements, and manages solutions for clients running for political offices, non-profits, and small businesses. I held various positions in political organizations and campaigns, including the College Republicans and Young Republicans. In 2004, I served as the Nevada Team Leader for the College Republican National Committee’s Field Program, and served as Communications Director for the Georgia Young Republicans. I also have extensive private business experience and a background in business operations. I am a certified ISO 9001 auditor and Project Management Professional (PMP). I hold a B.A. in Political Science from Colorado State University.

MORE FROM

Johnny Depp jokes about assassinating Donald Trump

"It's been a while," Depp said, "and maybe it's time."

Trump says he finds special counsel Mueller's relationship with James Comey "bothersome"

Trump says "virtually everybody agrees" that there's been no collusion or obstruction of justice.

'Hot Mic' podcast: GOP Senate health care, Comey tapes, 2016 election data stolen

The important stories to get you caught up for Friday

Watchdog groups sue Trump for deleting tweets, allegedly violating Presidential Records Act

Trump's deleted tweets may come back to haunt him.

Grizzly bear protections in Yellowstone National park are ending

A final ruling by US government officials will strike the Yellowstone grizzly bear from the list of threatened species after its population increased to 700.

Another day, another off-camera White House press briefing

The move to scale back on-camera press briefings comes amid Trump's increasing unwillingness to interact with the press.

Johnny Depp jokes about assassinating Donald Trump

"It's been a while," Depp said, "and maybe it's time."

Trump says he finds special counsel Mueller's relationship with James Comey "bothersome"

Trump says "virtually everybody agrees" that there's been no collusion or obstruction of justice.

'Hot Mic' podcast: GOP Senate health care, Comey tapes, 2016 election data stolen

The important stories to get you caught up for Friday

Watchdog groups sue Trump for deleting tweets, allegedly violating Presidential Records Act

Trump's deleted tweets may come back to haunt him.

Grizzly bear protections in Yellowstone National park are ending

A final ruling by US government officials will strike the Yellowstone grizzly bear from the list of threatened species after its population increased to 700.

Another day, another off-camera White House press briefing

The move to scale back on-camera press briefings comes amid Trump's increasing unwillingness to interact with the press.