Sabermetrician Nate Silver has Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada as the three states most likely to determine the outcome of Tuesday's presidential election. Silver also concludes that Obama has a 90% chance of winning in Nevada. While the likelihood of an Obama victory may be high, the margin of victory will undoubtedly be tighter than 2008 when Obama carried the state by 12 points. Nevada’s early voting suggests it has been much harder to re-elect Obama than to elect him. In Washoe and Clark counties, which comprises roughly 90% of the active registered voters, Democrats have accounted for 46% of early votes while Republicans have cast 35%. This means that Republicans have managed to turn out 60% of their registered voters early compared with only 39% in 2008. If the votes were counted today, Romney would only need 45% of Independent voters, 15% of Democratic voters, and 90% of his own party to pull off a victory. Despite the fact that voter turnout has so far come much easier for Republicans than for the Democrats, the most likely result in Nevada is an Obama victory by 5 points or less. The race will remain tight until the final votes are counted on Tuesday night and PolicyMic will be covering it all live from the front lines in Nevada. For instant analysis and commentary, bookmark and refresh this page.