Oscars Predictions: Nate Silver

Throwing conjecture out the window, Nate Silver, the guy who went 50-for-50 on who would win which states in the election, has predicted the Oscars. He's done this not judging on artistic merit, but judging on pre-Oscars awards and who won them: SAG, DGA, Golden Globes, etc. He focused on "insider" awards (like SAG) as opposed to "critics" awards (like the Golden Globes) because insiders pick the Oscars and they have a higher rate of correlation. So, his picks:

Picture: Argo

Director: Spielberg

Actor: Day-Lewis

Actress: Lawrence

Supporting Actor: Jones

Supporting Actress: Hathaway

I wish he weren't right, but I think he is. Damn predictability.