Throwing conjecture out the window, Nate Silver, the guy who went 50-for-50 on who would win which states in the election, has predicted the Oscars. He's done this not judging on artistic merit, but judging on pre-Oscars awards and who won them: SAG, DGA, Golden Globes, etc. He focused on "insider" awards (like SAG) as opposed to "critics" awards (like the Golden Globes) because insiders pick the Oscars and they have a higher rate of correlation. So, his picks:
Supporting Actor: Jones
Supporting Actress: Hathaway
I wish he weren't right, but I think he is. Damn predictability.