Full disclaimer: I never watch the Sunday political shows. I can't stand them and I get the rundown from PolicyMic anyway, so I don't feel that I've missed anything. I knew that former Florida Governor, Jeb Bush was going to be on every one of them this morning so I made doubly certain to be doing something else ... the laundry, the grocery shopping, walking the dogs, yard patrol. Anything that kept me out of the television room!
On Sunday, however, I ran across this story from the AP on my Roadrunner feed and had to laugh. I agree with Governor Bush! Gregory and his cohorts (some of whom are right here on PolicyMic and are our cohorts, too) are crack addicts who cannot stop obsessing over the 2016 presidential election. They simply cannot get enough of it or forbear from asking if Bush or Rubio, or whomever they happen to be interviewing, is going to run — or speculating about who is going to run, or giving odds on who the frontrunner might be in six months or some other such bloviation that gives pundits a bad name.
Listen up: it is a long time between now, March 2013, and November, 2016, and anything can happen between now and then. There is even an entire mid-term election cycle set to happen in November, 2014, which is going to have a major impact upon who decides to run in 2016. Let me give just a single example:
Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, was bruited about during the presidential campaign just past as a possible running mate for Mitt Romney. He is considered to be one of the top Republican possibilities to run for president in 2016. He has said — not coyly — that he will be "more ready" to run, then. He has also announced that he will stand for re-election as governor in November, 2014. Let us suppose that he wins re-election. He is very popular right now with his constituency. I do not think he is the sort of man who will abandon the Governor's Mansion halfway through his term to campaign for president.
On the other hand, the popular Democratic Mayor of Newark, Corey Booker, has made noises as though he might want to run for governor of New Jersey. If he wins, that frees Governor Christie to plan his presidential primary campaign, raise funds, hire staff and do all the due diligence necessary to run an extremely effective and successful organization right on through the nominating convention.
As I said, anything can happen. What is it that Bush wants to happen? What is it that Christie wants? What do Rubio, Jindal, Rand Paul and all the other wannabes want? Who will face primary challengers to their current seats and win? Who will go down? Who will win re-election in 2014?
I love observing the political process but I absolutely agree that too much attention upon the next presidential race when we have barely begun the current presidential term is something like addiction. There are too many variables to be able to nail down anything with certainty - on either side. Too many pennies have to drop in their proper order before we can even begin to say with any intelligence how the 2016 race might shape.