As was probably predetermined, the P5+1 talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan, have ended with no agreement on the nuclear issue with Iran, but instead with an announcement by President Ahmadinejad that Iran plans to open two more Uranium mines, five more enrichment sites, and a yellowcake production plant.
Iran and the P5+1 have been jerking each other around for quite some time. The U.S. insists that Iran open all of its doors to UN inspections and halt production past 20% enrichment, while Iranian negotiators demand Iran’s right to enrich be recognized by Western powers and refuse to stop enrichment.
But this story is steeped in sordid history. The U.S. has undermined Iran on the international stage since 1953 when it staged a coup in Iran and installed a brutal dictator. Time after time, Iran has been duped, assaulted, bled out via proxy, and all around toyed with by “the Great Satan,” and this has understandable led to a deep mistrust of the U.S. by its Persian adversary.
If there is to be any traction gained in the nuclear talks to end this stalemate, the U.S. must move first. Tehran has dealt with U.S. aggression and imperial arrogance for decades, and has taken sanctions, covert attacks, and public derision in stride. Ayatollah Khamenei knows that the U.S. has few tools left in the box except for air strikes and is too arrogant to apply the one tool that would set Iran on its heals – atonement à la économie.
While the latest proposal from the P5+1 seems publicly unavailable, you can bet your Shahab-3 that it doesn’t include the international community preemptively removing some heavy sanctions in exchange for Iranian acquiescence on its nuclear facilities.
Just think — and I’m primarily talking to U.S. Iranian policy “experts” — if the international community lays that proposal out, Iran has the option to either accept it and open its doors, proving it has nothing to hide and breaking through an issue that is getting ready to come to a B-52 crescendo, or turn it down, giving the rest of the world all the impetus it needs to take further steps against Iran, whatever those steps may be.
Iran wishes to save face for good reason, may or may not be building a bomb which it absolutely will not use anyways, and drastically needs to sell oil that its economy functions on in order to stay afloat; not to mention the fact that sooner or later, the world will need Iran’s oil to stay afloat as well.
Whatever happens, kinetic conflict is the worst end possible since it will make the situation in Syria far worse, lead to further deployment of U.S. military assets just when it has failed to deal with the draconian sequester, and will undoubtedly skyrocket the price of crude, thus compounding myriad other issues.
The only option left is to extend a red, white, and blue hand, bow our heads in good faith, and En Sha’ Allah, Iran will extend theirs as well.