War With Iran is Likely, and Israel Will Probably Start It

Thursday afternoon, Iranian citizens gathered in Tehran for their annual Army Day Parade. Members of the Islamic Republics leadership were present and took the time to quiet notions about a possible solo Israeli strike. But just earlier this week, during Israeli Independence Day, members of the Israeli leadership proposed and prepared their nation for the possibility of a solo strike on Iran. This led many to question whether this type of attack is even possible. It is clear that the Israelis are able to perform a strike on Iran, but it will not be a solo attack. It will be one backed by the United States. This provides Israelis with the capabilities and resources to withstand any defensive strategy Iran plans to use.

It is clear that when comparing these two countries head to head, Israel topples Iran militarily. Iran's advantage lies with their massive population: it is nearly ten times larger than the Jewish state's. However, their soldiers are armed with outdated and rather questionable equipment due to an arms embargo dating back to 1979. On the other hand, Israel is regarded as the best-equipped and best-trained military in the region. Yet critics argue that Israel does not have the capability to withstand a prolonged campaign against the Islamic Republic.

Nonetheless, when one accounts for statements made earlier this week by President Obama, Israel will not attack Iran alone. The United States has continually expressed its support for Israel in the event that it strikes Iran. As early as this Monday, the Senate committee expressed their support if Israel decides to attack Iran. One assumes that the same support will be given in the event that Iran attacks Israel. This gives Iran one type of strategy in military engagement with Israel ... a defensive one. Inevitably one foresees Iran surrendering, as it would be unable to withstand constant Israeli firepower, especially with ensured American support to bolster equipment and supplies.

Therefore, it is unlikely that we see Iran attacking Israel anytime soon, particularly when one accounts for the fact that Israel is the only country in the region to "reportedly" have nuclear weapons. Israel clearly holds the upper hand in this conflict, confirming the veracity of the statements made by the Israeli government earlier this week. Iran must understand the impact of their decision to move forward with uranium enrichment, as Netanyahu has repeatedly threatened to attack to prevent Iranian nuclear capability. The politics, statistics, and facts seem to be on the side of Israel leaving Iran with no other logical choice but diplomacy. Yet, there are no signs that show Iran slowing down their nuclear aspirations, making a conflict between these two countries unavoidable.

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Shimon Moshehai

Shimon is a recent college graduate with a bachelors degree in Political Science from UCLA. His research interests are Middle East Politics, Religion, and International Relations.

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