As the results come in for the South Carolina 1st Congressional District special election, a deluge of data and information will come our very suddenly. To prevent you from floundering about and drowning in a sea of returns, here are several key aspects to watch as everything comes in.
1. African American Turnout
African American voters are going to go for Colbert-Busch in a wide margin. A high turnout figure among African American voters would prove problematic for Sanford. The National Review quoted a South Carolina GOP insider who said that if African American turnout was at November 2012 levels “then there will be some troubles.”
2. Key Counties
Sanford is relying on Berkeley and Dorchester counties to provide a good number of votes and needs strong turnout from them. Berkeley and Dorchester went strongly for him in the primary but Beaufort, a less conservative area, did not. Colbert Busch needs strong turnout in Beaufort, as it is were a large number of her votes will come from.
The closeness of the race in polling means that a recount is a possibility, although unlikely as South Carolina law requires a win margin of less then one percent for a recount. Given that the last poll taken had it too close to call, a recount may occur.
Polls for the election close at 7:00 P.M. EDT.