Super Tuesday Live Results: The race for the Republican nomination turns to Super Tuesday, when 10 states will hold primaries or caucuses. It's the largest and most important primary day of the 2012 race to date.
A total of 437 delegates are at stake in the following states: Alaska (27), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), and Virginia (49).
If you're in one of the Super Tuesday states and have a tip about the campaign or mood in your state, comment below or let us know.
UPDATES (Refresh the page for live blurbs):
11:36 p.m. Romney wins 5 states and picks up significant delegates in MA, VA, ID, OH, and VT.
11:29 p.m. Looks like Romney is going to win Ohio by >2,000 votes. PolicyMic calls it for Romney. All the remaining uncounted counties are likely to increase Romney's lead over Santorum.
11:20 p.m. One interesting note, the NYT reports that if the final results are within ~2,000 votes, or 0.25% of the total, Ohio state law mandates a recount.
11:13 p.m. Pundits are starting to call it for Romney.
11:06 p.m. Romney takes the lead over Santorum by 2,000 votes in Ohio! Are we in for another Iowa situation?
10:58 p.m. Romney closes the gap. Santorum only leads by 0.3% now.
10:44 p.m. Mitt Romney surges and closes the gap with Rick Santorum! With 75% reporting, Santorum leads by only 6,000 votes.
10:14 p.m. Count is now Romney 3, Santorum 3, Gingrich 1.
10:12 p.m. Santorum wins North Dakota, beating Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Santorum has over 40% of the vote with 13% reporting.
9:56 p.m. Santorum Will Win Ohio? According to Nate Silver of the New York Times, Santorum might be sitting pretty in Ohio. "One way to get an idea of this is to assume that each county will account for the same share of the state's vote that it did in 2008. This method is potentially more reliable than making extrapolations based on the number of precincts that have have reported in each county, since precincts can vary significantly within a county in the number of voters they contain.
"If you weight the 2012 margins between Santorum and Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Santorum's margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points."
9:53 p.m. Romney gives his speech in Massachussettes. He congratulates the other candidates and then hammers on Obama for failing to fix the economy.
9:50 p.m. According to the New York Times, so far Romney is under-performing his polls in most states that have reported results so far, while Santorum is over-performing his -- possibly by a wide enough margin to swing Ohio, where Romney had appeared to have a slight advantage in the surveys but Santorum now leads in the vote count.
Although the polling data generally showed improving numbers for Romney over the course of the last week, there was one exception. The Gallup national tracking poll released on Tuesday afternoon showed Romney's numbers declining by 4 points, and Santorum gaining 2.
9:30 p.m. Ohio Primary Deadlocked With 23% of polls reporting in Ohio, Rick Santorum has taken a two point lead. Santorum is ahead of Romney 38% to 36%. Santorum is winning in rural areas, while Romney is taking urban areas including Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus.
9:20 p.m. Santorum Wins Tennessee and Oklahoma
9:10 p.m. North Dakota caucus had an exciting final day. Paul ended the day with a big speech. Will he able to beat the 21% he got in the 2008 race here?
9:08 p.m Ok maybe this was our favorite Tweet...
Best tweet of the night from new pundit:
8:50 p.m. Santorum wins big in Tennessee with over 40% of the vote. With that type of performance, Santorum is unlikely to drop out of the race anytime soon. Big timing!
8:43 p.m. Santorum take a commanding lead in Tennesse with 45% of the vote to Romney's 28%. This race could go on!
8:01 p.m. Romney Wins Massachusetts, with 0% reporting. Too easy.
8:00 p.m. Romney Leads Santorum in Ohio 39% to 37% with ~1% reporting. Exit polls showed favorable trends for Romney. Because candidates need to reach 20% threshold to get any delegates, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich will likely be shut out from the race there.
Catholic Vote Could Hurt Santorum in Ohio: Exit polls in Ohio show Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum tied among Protestant voters -- but they have Mitt Romney leading, 43 to 30, among Catholic ones.
This pattern isn't new -- it also manifested itself in Michigan -- but Ohio has slightly more Catholic voters than Michigan does.
7:44 p.m. CNN calls Vermont for Romney.
7:38 p.m. Romney Leads Vermont, But Not By Enough. Romney is leading with 35% of the vote, to Ron Paul's 30% with 2% of the state reporting. Romney needs a majority (50%) to secure all 17 of the states delegates. Currently, it doesn't look like Romney will win by a large enough margin, meaning the delegates will be distributed proportionally.
7:25 p.m. Mitt Romney Wins Virginia, according to the AP.
With just 5% of polls reporting in the state, Romney was already declared the winner, notching 58% to Paul’s 42%.
7:15 p.m. Romeny Ahead in Early Results. With 1% of polls reporting, Romney currently leads Paul 62% to 37%.
Romney is expected to win. According to a Roanoke College poll, Romney has held a commanding 56% of the likely vote in the state, while Paul has only about 21% support.
7:04 p.m. Gingrich WINS Georgia, according to exit polls.
According to PolicyMic's Jake Horowitz, Georgia was critical for Gingrich. Had Gingrich lost, he would not have been able to continue on. "I have to win Georgia, I think, to be credible in the race," the former Speaker admitted.
The Peach State will award 76 delegates in the Super Tuesday primary, the largest prize of all 10 states in the March 6 mega-primary. Georgia awards its delegates proportionally (it is not a winner-take-all state).
The First Polls Close at 7 p.m. EST (Georgia, Vermont, Virginia)
Ohio Picks Winners: Ohio has voted for the eventual Republican nominee in each nomination cycle since the modern primary era began in 1972. It is one of 10 states to have done so; the others are Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Wisconsin.
6:40 p.m. Bad Economics in Ohio According to exit polls, for voters in Ohio, the economy clearly outweighed social issues, with nearly 6 in 10 saying the economy was the most important issue in deciding whom to vote for today. Just about 1 in 10 voters said abortion was the issue that mattered most to their vote.
6:30 p.m. Exit Polls Show Voters Had Trouble Deciding According to the New York Times, Georgia had shown relatively sharp late movement in the polls, with Gingrich gaining several points in the polls over the course of the past week. Exit polls find there are more late-deciding voters in Georgia than the other Super Tuesday state.
31% of voters in Georgia made their decision either today or in the past few days, according to the exit polls. That figure is somewhat lower elsewhere: 27% in Ohio and 24% in Tennessee.
6:25 p.m. Paul Plays Moneyball and Hopes Ground Game Will Pay Dividends (And Delegates) in Idaho: Paul is using a Moneyball strategy in his campaign, reports PolicyMic editor Jordan Wolf: "Paul, by going to Idaho and North Dakota, is the GOP's equivalent of Billy Bean trying to replace his star line up after losing them all to other big budget teams.
"In one of the opening scenes of the movie based Jon Lewis' Moneyball, Brad Pitt listens to his advisers talk about how to replace Jason Giambi. What he finds out though, after meeting Jonah Hill's character — Yale educated Peter Brand — is that he should be thinking not about how to replace human beings on a roster, but how to make up stats in abstraction. Paul has made the same realization and is playing Moneyball in the GOP primary. He's going for delegates, the people who actually matter, rather than chasing percentage points in the nightly recaps of the major networks."
6:05 p.m. Romney Votes (For Himself?) Mitt and Ann Romney turned out at their polling place, a senior center, a little after 5 p.m. EST to cast their ballots in the Massachusetts primary.
“You might guess who I might have voted for,” Romney said, chuckling, according to a pool report from the event.
6:00 p.m. Electibility Matters: What do voter care most about? According to exit polls, it's electibility. A candidate's ability to beak Obama in Novemeber is critical across all Super Tuesday states, from east to west, to north and south.
Nearly half of voters in Georgia said electability mattered most to them, as did about 4 in 10 voters in Ohio and Massachusetts and nearly as many in Tennessee.
4:00 p.m. Ron Paul Hopes For Campaign-Changing Win in Alaska: Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate who is yet to win a state in the primaries, and he hopes to change that with a win today in Alaska.
Paul made a last minute campaign trip to Alaska over the weekend. Paul spoke to packed houses at Town Hall meetings in Anchorage and Fairbanks to rally voters before Super Tuesday.
It was standing room only at a convention center in Anchorage Sunday night, and Paul discussed typical libertarian issues including shrinking the government and cutting spending.
3:30 p.m. Milennials Are Starting to Lean Liberal in Conervative Oklahoma: As PolicyMic pundit David Walker explains from Oklahoma City, where millennials are literally trashing Santorum signs, "One gets the impression that these young, politically-active Oklahomans are not in the Romney or Gingrich camp; rather they seem to be a part of the more liberally inclined 18-29 year old demographic that supported President Obama nationwide in 2008.
"Based on exit polling, 18-29 year olds in Oklahoma still went for McCain in 2008, but by a lower percentage (60% as opposed to 66%) than the rest of the state. If the trend toward a more liberally-oriented youth vote continues in this election cycle, the days when the GOP could count on Oklahoma as an automatic presidential win may be numbered."
3:10 p.m. Gingrich Making a Push in Tennessee? In Nashville, PolicyMic pundit Cole Johnson reports: "Gingrich has been making the rounds throughout the state in hopes to corral a miracle victory that he received in South Carolina back in January – and play on the momentum of possibly winning his home state of Georgia along with it.
"Last week, the people who participated in a Vanderbilt University poll showed that Santorum is leading the Republican presidential frontrunner Romney by a 2-to-1 margin. It’s not totally surprising considering we’re in the Bible Belt. As of yesterday a CNN poll shows the race is considered too close to call between Santorum and Romney – with Gingrich making a respectable showing."
2:30 p.m. Will Ron Paul Capitalize On Open Primary in Virginia? PolicyMic pundit Michael Bell, an ROTC Instructor at George Mason University, Fairfax, reports: "Virginia does not require a voter to register with a political affiliation. This means that any individual may vote in either primary.
"There does not seem to be a push by left-leaning voters to try to sway this election, but there will assuredly be a small number of votes cast for Paul by non-Republican voters."
1:51 p.m. Obama Weighs in on Super Tuesday: At first Obama White House press conference of the year, Obama was asked what he thought about Romney's recent (and percisistent) claims that he was a bad president, and what he wanted to say to Romney. Obama simply said, "Good luck tonight."
1:22 p.m. Is Barack Obama the real winner in the Ohio primary? PolicyMicer Bryan Bradford in Columbus writes: "Coming in to Super Tuesday, one might sum up the atmosphere in Ohio as 'uninterested:' uninterested in the candidates, their rhetoric, the attack ads, and the back-and-forth jabs that the candidates take at each other.
"In my opinion and the opinion of those I have spoken with recently, there is only one clear winner when it comes to this primary election cycle ... President Obama.
"See, Ohioans aren't interested in hearing 'why we SHOULDN'T vote for the other guy.' We want to know why we SHOULD vote for YOU. But we don't want you to stop there. We want to know HOW you're going to do the things you say you want to accomplish.
Four years ago, Barack Obama did an unprecedented job of not only inspiring generations of voters, but he also told us how he was going to keep his promises. The GOP candidates have yet to do either of those things. In the opinions of many Ohio voters I've spoken with, if the President wants to lock up a second term, all he has to do is step back and watch the Republicans cannibalize themselves." Read more LIVE Ohio coverage here.
12:09 p.m. Tornados in Tennessee Weigh on Voters. As PolicyMic pundit Martin Stern explains: "Heading in the Super Tuesday, much of the fervor and excitement surrounding the GOP presidential primaries has been dampened slightly by a series of tornadoes the hit the state and surrounding region on Friday, leaving injuries and massive clean-up efforts in its wake.
"That said, the state has not completely forgotten the primaries. There is very much to be contested here, with Romney visiting last week and Gingrich finishing his Super Tuesday assault splitting time between Tennessee and Georgia. That said, despite a despite surge in the polls by Romney, there is a certain amount of resignation to the fact to this race is Santorum's in Tennessee. However, as it seems like each successive poll to be released shows a narrower gap, only Super Tuesday will prove that true or not. Regardless, it should be an exciting and important Tuesday in Tennessee, as well as America." Read more LIVE Tennessee coverage here.
Google releases trending data here. Looks like a lot of people are searching up on Romney with the economy as the leading issue in every state. Google search data suggests Romney may come out on top today.
Check out WSJ's cool map & guide to Super Tuesday here.
Ad Spending (as of 2-Mar) via NBC's great guide.
Total Romney and allies: $8.4 million
Total Gingrich and allies: $3.3 million
Total Santorum and allies: $1.6 million
Total Paul and allies: $102,000
Ohio: Restore Our Future $2.6 million, Romney $1.4 million, Winning Our Future $730,000, Red White and Blue Fund $515,000 Santorum $389,000, Gingrich $3,000
Georgia: Restore Our Future $2 million, Winning Our Future $1.3 million, Romney $327,000, Santorum $230,000, Gingrich $15,000
Oklahoma: Restore Our Future $568,000, Winning Our Future $635,000, Santorum $237,000, Gingrich $3,000
Tennessee: Restore Our Future $1.4 million, Winning Our Future $635,000, Santorum $200,000
Idaho: Restore Our Future $72,000, Paul $47,000, Romney $37,000
Vermont: Paul $55,000, Romney $43,000
FYI, Polls closing times, via Morning Score
7:00 PM: Georgia, Vermont, Virginia
7:30 PM: Ohio
8:00 PM: Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee
10:00 PM: Idaho (9:00/10:00 Eastern)
12:00 AM: Alaska (results by 2:00 AM)
Everything You Need to Know About the Super Tuesday States:
Alaska offers 27 delegates, which will be split proportionately based on popular vote, and it will be open only to registered Alaska Republicans. Ron Paul is making a bid to win his first primary in Alaska. Paul is the only GOP candidate who has planned a campaign stop for this weekend, according to his "Alaska for Ron Paul" Facebook page. The Alaska Dispatch is predicting a Ron Paul victory, saying Paul is the only candidate who has done any significant campaigning in the state. Full updates here.
Georgia. Newt Gingrich is staking the future of his presidential campaign on Georgia, which makes it the second-most important Super Tuesday contest only to Ohio. If Gingrich does not win in Georgia, his campaign cannot continue moving forward. The Peach State will award 76 delegates in the Super Tuesday primary, the largest prize of all ten states in the March 6 mega-primary. In four polls taken between February 20 and 26, Gingrich led by an average of nine points, and Nate Silver says he has an 86% chance of winning. More here.
Idaho. Idaho is not expected to be a major battleground on Super Tuesday, but the state has 32 delegates up for grabs in the Caucus, which is more than Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Idaho GOP Chairman Norm Semanko said Idaho could set a record for per capita caucus participation. Sen. John McGee of Caldwell, chairman of the Canyon County GOP, predicts 15,000 will attend caucuses in Ada and Canyon counties alone. Check out live blog here.
Massachusetts. GOP front-runner Mitt Romney is well on his way to winning the Massachusetts primary, one of ten contests which will take place next week on Super Tuesday (March 6). There's little contest in Massachusetts, however, with former governor Romney well-poised to win big in the state. "I didn't even know we were having [a primary]" joked Senate Majority Leader Fred Berry. More on the likely Romney romp here.
North Dakota. North Dakota's primary will only reward 28 delegates to Tuesday's winner, but the Romney campaign has already made three trips to North Dakota in as many weeks to try to lock-up the nomination. Romney has been endorsed by many of the state's most prominent Republicans. North Dakota's 3.3% unemployment rate is the lowest in the nation. Thus, Romney spent time campaigning on his energy policies, not on economics. More here.
Ohio. Ohio is the prize jewel on Super Tuesday, and the Republican candidates are pouring in money and time campaigning in the state ahead of next week's primary. It has 66 delegates up for grabs, second only behind Georgia's 76 delegates, and it is shaping up to be a close race. Two recent surveys show Rick Santorum in the lead. Follow it closely here.
Oklahoma. Rick Santorum says his campaign is counting on a victory in the state, along with Tennessee and Ohio, to prove he can win across the country. Oklahoma has 43 delegates at stake. In 2008, Sen. John McCain won Oklahoma with 65.4 percent of the vote. Oklahoma was the only state where McCain carried all 77 counties. Four years ago, McCain won the Oklahoma GOP primary with 37 percent. Romney was third with 25 percent and Paul got 3 percent. Full report here.
Tennessee. Rick Santorum has a commanding 20-point lead against Mitt Romney in Tennessee ahead of Super Tuesday, according to a Middle Tennessee State University poll released this week. That could be, in part, because Tennessee Democratic Party leaders have leveled political attacks Romney, while leaving Santorum untouched. A Vanderbilt University poll says Santorum is at the top of the Republican field with 38 percent of support from Tennesseans, a double-digit lead over Romney's 20 percent. Ron Paul received 15 percent, and Gingrich stood at 13 percent while the remaining 13 percent of those polled remained undecided. Read more here.
Vermont. For the first time in many years, the outcome of the Vermont primary on Super Tuesday could impact the national presidential race. Vermont has 17 delegates at stake. According to the state's quirky voting system, if a candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote, he'll win all the delegates. If no one receives a majority, then delegates will be allocated on a propotional basis. As such, Middlebury political science professor Eric Davis says the primary could have even more significance for Mitt Romney than Ohio. If Romney wins at least 51 percent of the vote, he'll pick up 17 delegates over Rick Santorum. Meanwhile, because Ohio uses a proportional voting system, Romney will have a net gain of less than 10 delegates in Ohio. Live updates here.
Virginia. Only two names will appear on the ballot in Virginia in next week's Super Tuesday primary: Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. According to a Roanoke College survey, 56% they're backing Romney, and 21% are supporting Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. But if Santorum and Gingrich were on the ballot, the poll indicates it would be a much closer race, with Romney at 31%, Rick Santorum 27%, Newt Gingrich 13% and Paul 12%. Here's the full update.
PolicyMic will be providing live updates on all the contests as we receive them. Below are bullet points, data points, and every blurb you need to know to stay updated on Super Tuesday. Updates will also be made as they come in.
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