iPad 3 Predictions: Which Tech Blogs Guessed Right?

Tim Cook unveiled the latest developements that will be available on the iPad 3, and the big new features are going to be 4G LTE, a better camera, the A5x processor, retina display, and 1080p video recording. 

Lots of tech blogs discussed the rumors about the features that would be available and The Atlantic created a handy chart of which blogs predicted what. 

Now that the big features have been revealed, it's possible to compare what the iPad actually has to what people thought it would have. 

Of the following blogs -- Apple Insider, TechCrunch, Gizmodo, The Verge, and Ars Technica -- who was closest to getting these features right?

First, it's important to see who missed something, i.e., a blog that did not think a feature would be present that did turn out to be included. 

All of these blogs got the retinal display right, but Apple Insider, The Verge, and Ars Technica all called the inclusion of 4G LTE. TechCrunch and Gizmodo didn't get it wrong, but they didn't offer a firm pronouncement. TechCrunch wrote that LTE was "a wild card." However, TechCrunch was one of the few blogs to predict that Siri would be part of the third iPad. 

Everyone also got the inclusion of the better camera right, except The Verge, though to be fair, it's not clear if they meant their rumor wrap-up to be exhaustive.

The other type of error, though, is overinclusion. It's easy to predict all the features if one is willing to predict that every possible mentioned feature will be included. Who did the best at refusing to bite on false rumors? 

Gizmodo was willing to say that there would be no home button on the new device -- the only site who made that pronouncement. They turned out to be wrong. On the other hand, they were the only group to take a firm stand on the release date. They predicted March 16, and they were right. 

All told, most people got the basic features right. TechCrunch under-predicted and Gizmodo over-predicted. 

Photo Credit: Ben Atkin

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Jordan Wolf

My training is partially in philosophy and I'm interested in democratic theory, but more practically, I like thinking about media sophistication, data in politics, and ways to curb partisanship.

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