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In assessing the Romney vs. Obama campaign for the presidency, let's step back and look at the big picture. The Republican nominee will win in November, and here's why.

Mitt Romney is currently running about even with Barack Obama in reputable polls. Tied, or even a few points behind in May, is the ideal position for the challenger.

Romney's vote minimum is McCain's 47% — and he will certainly do much better than that.
Obama's vote maximum is his previous 53% — and he will certainly do much worse than that.

Here are 7 reasons why Romney will win

1. Romney has the discipline to stay on message.
2. Romney wants to win more than McCain did in 2008.
3. Romney has better strategists than McCain had in 2008.
4. Romney is not afraid of Obama.
5. Romney has firmed up his support among conservatives more effectively than some had feared.
6. Romney's campaign funding will be better than McCain's was in 2008.
7. The RNC is much stronger than it was in 2008.
8. Republican activists are using the Internet more effectively than they were in 2008.

... and 8 reasons why Obama will lose: 

1. Obama and congressional Democrats are clearly to blame for the dismal economy.
2. Obama can boast of few positive achievements in office.
3. Obama is becoming an object of ridicule.
4. Obama has needlessly created political enemies among the electorate.
5. Obama has lost support among the moderates who still remain within the Democratic Party.
6. Obama's background is at last being examined.
7. Voters are tired of media claims that he is a messiah, a uniter, or above politics.
8. Democrats are not as motivated as they were in 2008.

So, don't let the democratic media dispirit you. Donate and volunteer — and be of good cheer.  And, bear in mind the words of Abraham Lincoln:

"Neither let us be slandered from our duty by false accusations against us, nor frightened from it by menaces of destruction to the Government nor of dungeons to ourselves. Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith, let us, to the end, dare to do our duty as we understand it."

Michael is the author of the blog Grand Old Partisan and Back to Basics for the Republican Party, a history of the GOP.