It seems unlikely that Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania. That's according to week of polling and election projections that put the state squarely in Hillary Clinton's column.
Among four key swing states Trump has targeted in his bid for the White House, Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania is the largest. She leads there by about 6 percentage points. In Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, the other three states, Clinton's margin is narrower. And Trump may be leading in Ohio.
A Clinton win in Pennsylvania will set her up for victory if she gets a win in one other large swing state: Florida, North Carolina or Ohio. Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes have gone Democratic since 1992. Trump has made a play for white voters in communities that have been hurt by a loss of manufacturing jobs, particularly in southwestern Pennsylvania.
But recent polls show Clinton's margin among independents and female voters in the state. And the state has a larger minority population, groups broadly opposed to Trump, than neighboring Ohio, where Trump has always played up his anti-free trade, pro-manufacturing agenda. While Trump may hope to draw increased support from working-class white voters, he has likely alienated too many other groups to turn Pennsylvania red.