Egg hatching can be one of the most exciting (and frustrating) parts of Pokémon Go — even when egg spawns are increased during special events. When you've got only one incubator to your name and you're still a few levels off from hitting the next big milestone, it's tough to decide whether you should speed through 2km eggs for the experience or commit to a 10km egg instead.
We're here to make that decision a little easier for you. Here's an update on the chances of hatching the Pokémon you want from a 10km egg in Gen 2.
Pokémon Go Gen 2 egg list: Your chances of hatching new 10km Pokémon like Mareep and Larvitar
If you're curious about what's going to come out of those 10km eggs you've had sitting in your inventory, The Silph Road has you covered. User beaglechu tabulated the results from 46 different Silph Road members' 10km egg hatches and got the approximate hatch percentages for 485 eggs:
• Pineco 110 22.7%
• Dratini 98 20.2%
• Mantine 50 10.3%
• Gilgar 49 10.1%
• Larvitar 48 9.9%
• Sudowoodo 31 6.4%
• Chansey 18 3.7%
• Mareep 18 3.7%
• Aerodactyl 16 3.3%
• Lapras 3.1%
• Skarmory 14 2.9%
• Snorlax 12 2.5%
• Miltank 6 1.2%
Looking at the numbers, some things should jump out. Pineco (who evolves to Forretress, a decent defender) being at the top of the list isn't the most thrilling, but at least it's a Gen 2 Pokémon. A 20% chance to catch a Dratini, whose evolution Dragonite has topped gym charts since the game's beginning, and a 10% chance to catch Larvitar, whose evolution Tyranitar is quickly becoming one of the best Pokémon in Gen 2, should hopefully galvanize players into hatching some of those 10km eggs.
Pokémon Go Gen 2 egg list: Blissey and Snorlax chances
Unfortunately, if you were hoping for a Blissey or a Snorlax, you're probably going to have to hatch a lot of eggs to even come close to getting them with their respective 4% and 2.5% drop chances. Gen 2's Ampharos, which evolves from Mareep, is similarly rare with a 4% chance to come out of an egg.
Although we don't know how these statistics will change as the new update progresses, and individual results may vary, it's at least good to know how likely it is that you're going to get the Pokémon you want before saddling up for a 6.2-mile walk with its egg — even if the RNG sticks you with a bunch of Pinecos you don't want.
More Pokémon Go tips, tricks and guides
If you're booting up the game for the first time in a while to get ready for Gen 2, be sure to check out Mic's guides on how to get stardust, how to determine how long it will take you to reach level 40, the kind of Pokémon you get from 10km eggs, how to create new PokéStops, how to maximize your chances of catching Pokémon and how PokéStops distribute Pokémon eggs. Also check out how to catch Gen 2 baby Pokémon, our analysis of post-balance update Chansey and Rhydon and everything you need to know about finding the long-awaited Pokémon Ditto.